汽车行业分析
发达国家汽车工业已处在成熟阶段，未来几年将是我国汽车需求增长较快的时期 。
发达国家汽车工业已进入成熟期，全球汽车年产量约7000万辆，而需求量只有5000万辆左右。设备利用率平均69％，远低于1990年的80％。全球汽车工业平均年增长速度在2.2％左右。据不完全统计，世界轿车总保有量约5．5亿辆，其中1／4分布在西欧、北美和日本等地区，但这些地区的增长速度已趋缓，汽车市场趋于饱和，如美国人均拥有1辆轿车，其市场空间已经不大。而且市场呈现寡头垄断的特征，汽车产量集中在少数汽车跨国公司手里。行业的盈利水平较低，大多数汽车企业的净利润率不足3％。汽车寡头们通过不断的收购兼并和联合，扩大经营规模以降低成本。汽车的生产制造技术也已非常成熟。因此无论从哪个角度分析，发达国家汽车工业已处在成熟阶段。
南美和亚洲一些发展中国家汽车工业增长速度略高一些，是世界增长最快和最具活力的市场，汽车保有量的年均增长速度接近8％。其汽车工业处在成长期。
我国1994年以前汽车工业快速增长，1994年—1998年，处于低速发展阶段，年均产量增长率只有4．68％，落后于同期我国GDP的增长速度。1999年开始出现快速增长，当年增长12．39％，2000年增长13．03％。从近10年我国汽车工业的发展情况看，波动幅度较大，如果与同期我国GDP增长速度相比较，很难得出汽车工业处于成长期的结论。但从人均汽车拥有量看，我国百人汽车保有量为1．1辆，不仅无法与发达国家相比，即使与巴西等发展中国家相比，也存在较大的差距（巴西每百人汽车保有量为4．2辆）。从年人均收入水平看，日、美、韩等国汽车工业快速发展时期正是年人均收入达到4000美元的时期，这一时期被认为是汽车工业发展的导入期。目前我国的年人均收入水平只有800美元，沿海一些地区达到4000美元左右。因此从购买力水平的角度分析，未来几年将是我国汽车需求增长较快的时期。
汽车上市公司的平均利润率高于行业平均水平汽车上市公司的平均毛利率为21％，营业利润率在10％左右，高于行业的平均水平。但随着汽车产品销售价格的逐步走低以及钢铁等原材料价格的上升，其毛利率在近年也有所下降。我国加入WTO后，进口轿车价格的下降将使国产轿车承受较大的降价压力。从长远来看汽
车的价格趋于下降，如果生产规模没法得到有效的提高，生产成本将无法降低，那么汽车企业的毛利率还会下降，盈利能力也将进一步减弱。
如果我们分车型来看，轿车的营业利润率最高，维持在10％左右。轿车企业中上海大众、一汽大众等合资企业的营业利润率较高，达到16％左右，天津汽车、长安汽车的营业利润率在6％以下。载货车的利润率居第二位，最差的是客车，客车业由于企业数目众多（全国共有77家），大多数企业的规模很小，无法有效控制经营成本。客车类上市公司的平均营业利润率约5％。而零部件企业的利润率也随着整车价格的走低而下降。
目前我国汽车行业的盈利水平呈现两极分化，一部分企业的盈利能力很强，如中外合资轿车企业及相关的零部件配套企业。零部件企业由于相当一部分属于集团内部的配套供货，配套价格远高于市场价格，造成汽车国产化率越高，整车的成本和售价越高的“水涨船高”的现象。在市场放开之前，这些企业仍能维持较高的盈利水平。
从全球范围看，汽车工业已进入微利阶段。1999年通用、丰田公司的净利润率分别只有3．2％和2．79％。其它几大汽车跨国公司的净利润率大多低于3％。目前我国汽车行业的总生产能力已超过500万辆，而每年的产量只有200万辆。其中轿车生产企业超过13家，年总产量约60万辆，一半以上的生产能力闲置。生产集中度前3家为66．68％，前5家为83．88％。大中型客车企业83家（含改装厂），生产能力达到10万辆，年产量只有4．7万辆。轻型客车企业分散、厂点过多，全国共有40家。生产能力已放空一半，而且生产能力的增长速度仍高于需求的增长速度。前5家企业的生产集中度为66％，1／3以上的轻客企业处于亏损状态。零部件方面，技术含量低的机械件如万向节、汽车轴承等产品供过于求，而包括发动机管理系统、自动变速箱、安全气囊、ABS在内的一些高技术产品则需从国外进口。从现有供给能力看，我国整车的生产能力过剩，约有一半的产能放空，基本上形成多品种、多档次的系列产品。进口主要集中在高档轿车和客车上。零部件方面，技术含量低的机械件供大于求，产品竞争激烈。而技术含量高的电子产品如自动变速箱、安全气囊等产品国内供给能力不足，大部分需从国外进口。
2007年轿车的需求增长速度可能略高于去年，尤其是经济型车
1999年我国汽车工业的大幅度增长，是多年来低速增长的反弹，还是作为快速增长的拐点值得注意。另外需要注意的是1999年、2000年拉动我国汽车增长的主
要车型是客车和重型载货车。2000年受消费者对价格下跌预期的影响，轿车的需求量并没有明显的放大，全年的产销量同比增长9％左右，比汽车工业的增速落后4个百分点。虽然私人购车的比例在近年有大幅度上升，但大量的潜在消费者仍处于持币观望状态。
2007年轿车市场将出现一些变化，比如：
———供给结构发生变化，大量新车型将推出。奇瑞、赛欧、比亚迪、夏利2006等经济型轿车的上市以及价格更为低廉的吉利、悦达、QQ、奔奔等6字头轿车（指在我国汽车目录管理中被列入客车目录下的部分微型轿车）的加入，可能使私人轿车市场成为今年汽车市场的热点。
———政府的政策导向将以刺激轿车消费为主。国家已于去年出台了包括取消238项不合理的地方性交通和车辆收费项目以及汽车消费信贷业务等一系列鼓励消费的政策。
———从今年3月1日起，我国将实行汽车报废新标准，轿车等非运营车辆的使用年限延长至15年。
综合以上分析，2007年轿车的需求增长速度可能略高于去年，估计增速在10％以上，两三年以后，经济型家用轿车市场才有可能全面启动。这些都是投资者值得关注的。
AUTOMOBILEPROFESSIONNALYSIS
The developed country automobile labor already occupies the mature stage, future several years will be our country automobile demand grow a quicker time.
The developed country automobile labor already enters the mature period, global automobile annual output approximately 70 million, but the demand quantity only has about 50 million.The equipment utilization rate average 69%, far was lower than 1990 80%.Whole world automobile industry average year rate of rise about 2.2%.According to incomplete statistics, the world paenger vehicle always held quantity approximately 550 million, 1/4 distributes in area and so on Western Europe, North America and Japan, but these local rates of rise have hastened slow, the auto market tends to saturated, if US average per person has 1 paenger vehicle, its market space already was not big.Moreover the market presents the oligopoly the characteristic, the automobile output concentrates in the minority automobile multinational corporation.Profeion profit level lower, the majority automobile enterprise the profit margin is only insufficient 3%.The automobile oligarchs annex through the unceasing purchase and unite, the expanded management scale reduces the cost.The automobile production manufacture technology extremely has been also mature.Which angle analysis therefore regardle of from, the developed country automobile labor already occupies the mature stage.
South America and Asian some developing nation automobile industry rate of rise slightly high somewhat, are the world grows quickest and most has the vigor the market, the automobile holds the quantity the yearly average rate of rise to approach 8%.Its automobile industry occupies long-term.
Our country in 1994 before the automobile industry fast growth, 1994 --- 1998, was at the low speed development phase, the yearly average output rate of increment only has 4.68%, fell behind to the same time our country GDP rate of rise.In 1999 starts to appear the fast growth, same year grew 12.39%, in 2000 grew 13.03%.Looked from the nearly 10 year our country automobile industry development situation that, the margin of fluctuation is bigger, if compares with the same time our country GDP rate of rise, is very rare the automobile industry to be in the long-term conclusion.But looked from the average per person automobile capacity that, the our country hundred person of automobiles hold the quantity are 1.1, not only is unable with the developed country to compare, even if with developing nation and so on Brazil compares, also has a bigger disparity (the Brazilian every hundred person of automobiles to hold quantity is 4.2).Looking from the year average per person income level that, country automobile industry fast development time and so on date, America, Han is precisely the year average per person income achieved 4,000 US dollars times, this time was considered is the automobile industry development inducts the time.At present our country year average per person income level only has 800 US dollars, coastal some areas amounts to about 4,000 US dollars.Therefore from the purchasing power level angle analysis, future several years will be our country automobile demand grows a quicker time.The automobile goes on the market company\'s average rate of profit to be higher than the profeion average level
The automobile goes on the market company\'s average gro profit rate is 21%, busine profit margin about 10%, is higher than the profeion the average level.But gradually walks along with the automobile product selling price low as well as raw material price the and so on steel and iron rise, its gro profit rate also had the drop in the recent years.After our country
joins WTO, imports the paenger vehicle price under to cause the domestically produced paenger vehicle to withstand in a big way reduces prices the preure.In the long-range view the automobile price tends to the drop, if the production scale has no way to obtain the effective enhancement, the production cost will be unable to reduce, then the automobile enterprise\'s gro profit rate also will be able to drop, the profit ability also further will be weaken.
If our minute vehicle type looked, the paenger vehicle busine profit margin is highest, maintains about 10%.In the paenger vehicle enterprise joint capital enterprise\'s the and so on a Shanghai populace, steam populace busine profit margin is higher, achieves about 16%, Tianjin automobile, Chang An automobile busine profit margin below 6%.The truck profit margin occupies second, worst is the paenger train, the paenger train industry because the enterprise number multitudinous (nation altogether has 77), the majority enterprise\'s scale is very small, is unable the active control cost of operation.The paenger train cla goes on the market company\'s average busine profit margin approximately 5%.But the spare part enterprise\'s profit margin also walks along with the entire vehicle price lowers drops.
At present our country automobile profeion profit level presents the polarization, part of enterprises\' profit abilities are very strong, like chinese-foreign joint venture paenger vehicle enterprise and correlation spare part neceary enterprise.The spare part enterprise because quite a part belongs to the group interior neceary to supply goods, the neceary price far is higher than the market price, creates the automobile domestic product rate to behigher, the entire vehicle cost and the selling price higherphenomenon.Lets loose before the market, these enterprises still could maintain the higher profit level.
Looking from the global scope that, the automobile labor already enters the meager profit stage.In 1999 is general, the Toyota company only the profit margin distinction only has 3.2% and 2.79%.Other several big automobiles multinational corporation only the profit margin mostly is lower than 3%.At present our country automobile profeion total productivity has surpaed 5 million, but every year output only has 2 million.Paenger vehicle production enterprise surpaes 13, year ultimate output approximately 600,000, a half above productivity leaves unused.Production first 3 are 66.68%, first 5 are 83.88%.Large and middle scale paenger trains enterprise 83 (contain reequipment factory), the productivity achieved 100,000, the annual output only has 47,000.The light paenger train enterprise disperses, the factory selects exceively much, the nation altogether has 40.The productivity blew off one half, moreover the productivity rate of rise still was higher than the demand the rate of rise.The first 5 enterprises\' productionis 66%, 1/3 above light guest enterprise is at the lo condition.Spare part aspect, technical content low product and so on machinery like universal joint, automobile bearing , but including the engine management system management system, the automatic gear box, the security aerocyst, the ABS some high-tech products must from the overseas import.Looking from the existing supplies ability, our country entire vehicle productivity too much, approximately some one half produces can blow off, basically forms the multi- varieties, the multi- scales series product.Imports mainly concentrates on the upscale paenger vehicle and the paenger train.The spare part aspect, the technical content low machinery for is bigger than asks, the product competition is intense.But technical content high product domestic supplies ability and so on electronic products like automatic gear box, security aerocyst is insufficient, majority of must from the overseas import.
In 2007 the paenger vehicle demand rate of rise slightly was poibly higher than last
year, in particular economy vehicle
In 1999 the our country automobile industry large scale growth, is a resilience which the for many years low speed has grown, or takes the fast growth the inflection point worth noting.Moreover the need attention is in 1999, in 2000 draws the main vehicle type which our country automobile grows is the paenger train and the heavy truck.In 2000 falls the anticipated influence the consumer to the price, the paenger vehicle demand quantity certainly not obvious enlargement, the whole year produces the sales volume same ratio to grow about 9%, falls behind 4 percentage points compared to the automobile industry speed-up.Although personal bought the vehicle the proportion to have the large scale rise in the recent years, but the maive potential consumers still were at hold the coin to wait and see the condition.
In 2007 the paenger vehicle market will appear some changes, for instance:
————the supplies structure changes, the maive new vehicle types will promote.Wonderful Switzerland, match Europe, enlighten, the summer advantage Asia 2,006 and so on the economy paenger vehicle goes on the market as well as the price more inexpensive is more auspicious than, pleased reaches, QQ, rushes and so on 6 prefixes paenger vehicles (to refer in our country automobile table of contents management includes under paenger train table of contents part miniature paenger vehicle) joining, poibly causes the personal paenger vehicle market to become this year auto market the hot spot.
————government\'s policy guidance will stimulate the paenger vehicle to expend primarily.The country has appeared to last year including to cancel 238 unreasonable short-distance traffic and the vehicles charge project as well as the automobile expends the policy which the credit operation and so on a series of encouragements expends.
————from this March 1, our country implements the rejection of car new standard, the paenger vehicle and so on the non- operation vehicles service life lengthens to 15 years.
Above the synthesis analyzes, in 2007 the paenger vehicle demand rate of rise slightly was poibly higher than last year, estimated speed-up above 10%, after 23 years, the economy home use paenger vehicle market only then had the poibility comprehensive start.
These all are the investor is worth paying attention.
