2008年金融危机：渐行渐近的全球经济滞胀
次贷危机是美国经济放缓的导火索，其后续影响不断恶化并逐渐波及到世界经济。2007年世界经济在连续四年的高速增长之后，出现了调整的迹象。同时，美国、欧元区和广大发展中国家的CPI上涨率已超过央行设定的控制目标。经济增长放缓和通货膨胀的压力同时出现，威胁着世界经济的发展，全球经济滞胀已经渐行渐近
2008 financial crisis (in English)
2008 financial crisis: Jianxingjianjin global economic stagflation
Second loan crisis in the U.S.economy is slowing down the fuse, and its follow-up impact of the deteriorating and gradually spread to the world economy.In 2007 the world economy for the fourth consecutive year of rapid growth, there have been signs of adjustment.At the same time, the United States, and the vast number of developing countries in the euro zone\'s CPI growth rate has exceeded the central bank set the goal of control.Slowdown in economic growth and inflation preures at the same time, threatening the world economy, global economic stagnation has been Jianxingjianjin.
世界主要国家出现滞胀的早期征毙
2007年以来，主要发达国家经济增长开始“减速” ，全球大多数国家通货膨胀水平上升，世界上主要国家已经出现经济滞胀的早期迹象
The world\'s major countries stagflation of the early symptoms to death
Since 2007, economic growth in major developed countries began to \"slow down\", the global rise in the level of inflation in most countries of the world\'s major countries have been early signs of economic stagnation
美国作为世界上第一大经济体，对世界经济的发展具有火车头的作用。然而2007年美国经济的表现不尽人意，次贷危机的爆发更是雪上加霜。经济增长速度降低，通货膨胀率升高，失业率增加，这一切显示出美国经济已经离滞胀越来越近了。美联储前主席格林斯潘称“美国经济尚未陷入滞胀，但已经有早期迹象出现”。
从欧元区的数据来看，虽然2007年欧元区的GDP增长了2．6％ ，略低于上一年的
2．8％ ，但是全年经济波动较大，第二季度仅增长0．3％，是2005年以来的最小增幅。欧洲经济面临经济下行的风险。
以“金砖四国”—— 中国、俄罗斯、印度和巴西为代表的新兴国家，虽然经济仍能维持较快的发展速度，但是面临较高的通货膨胀压力。2007年，中国、印度和俄罗斯的GDP分别增长11.4％、8.9％和8.1％ ，CP1分别上涨4.8％、5.2％和9.4％ ，均超过其央行设定的控制目标
The United States as the world\'s largest economies, the world\'s locomotive of economic development.However, in 2007 le than satisfactory performance of the U.S.economy, sub-loan crisis broke out, more difficult.To reduce the rate of economic growth, rising inflation, the rise in unemployment, all show the U.S.economy has been growing from the stagnation of the past.Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said \"stagflation in the U.S.economy has not yet, but already there are early signs appear.\"
The data from the euro zone, although in 2007 the euro-zone GDP grew by 2.6 percent, slightly lower than the previous year\'s 2.8 percent, but the large fluctuations in the economy as a whole, in the second quarter increased by only 0.3 % In 2005 is the smallest increase since.The European economy is facing the risk of the economy down.\"BRIC\" - China, Ruia, India and Brazil are represented by emerging countries, although the economy has been able to maintain relatively rapid pace of development, but faced with higher inflationary preures.In 2007, China, India and Ruia\'s GDP grew 11.4%, 8.9% and 8.1%, CP1 rose 4.8 percent, 5.2 percent and 9.4 percent, exceeding the central bank set its goal to control.总的来看，由于新兴国家经济的持续增长，部分抵消了由于美国经济陷入衰退带来的影响，全球经济陷入停滞的趋势还不明显，但通货膨胀已在全球范围内显现，并呈愈演愈烈之势。如果主要发达国家经济疲态延续，全球通货膨胀进一步向恶性势态发展， 目前发展尚好的新兴国家经济必然会受到影响。果真如此，历史上从来没有出现过的、涵盖绝大多数发达国家和发展中国家的全球滞胀幽灵将在不远的将来显身。
Overall, the emerging countries as a result of sustained economic growth, partially offset by the U.S.economy into receion due to the impact of the global economy to a standstill trend is not clear, however, inflation has emerged on a global scale and become increasingly positive Potential.If the major developed economic weakne continue, to the vicious global inflation and further developments, the current development of the country\'s economy is still good new is bound to be affected.If so, history has never seen, covering the vast majority of developed and developing countries of the world\'s specter of stagflation in the near future will still anonymous.
经济趋于滞胀的原因
美国在20世纪70年代曾经出现过经济滞胀，当时是由突发地缘政治事件造成的“石油危机”引发的。通过对比可以看出， 目前的全球经济形势与70年代滞胀有着相似之处，都是由原材料的价格上涨引发通货膨胀，导致经济衰退。但此次全球通货膨胀，是以美国的次贷危机为导火索，实质上是流动性过剩引发的全球大宗资源商品价格高涨所致。石油和粮食价格上涨。推动叠货膨胀全球扩散
石油短缺推动价格上涨。2001年至2004年间，美国、欧洲等国家为了应付经济衰退的局面大幅降低利率，货币供应量增加，经济增长产生巨大的需求，同时新兴国家经济发展，石油消费量增加。但是石油输出国组织一直奉行“限产保价” 策略，导致石油供给短缺，油价持续升高。石油作为全球消费量最大的基础经济能源，位于产业链的顶端，石油价格上涨将会产生高位示范效应，给相关产业带来重大影响，会导致基础资源价格的整体上升，将通货膨胀推向更高的水平。
国际粮食价格也大幅提高。粮食价格上涨的部分原因是由于过去一年里干旱等自然灾害使得产量降低，更主要的原因在于许多国家进行生物燃料的开发和生产，种植大量油料作物缩小了农业作物的种植面积。粮食和能源的高度关联使得粮食价格的上涨迅速“惨透”到总体物价，加剧通货膨胀，严重威胁对粮食和原材料依赖较高的发展中国家的经济发展 Stagflation economy of the reasons
The United States in the 1970s have seen economic stagnation, then by the unexpected geopolitical events caused by the \"oil crisis\" caused.As can be seen by comparing the current global economic situation and the 70s stagflation have similarities, from raw material price increases lead to inflation, leading to a receion.However, the global inflation, the U.S.sub-loan crisis for the fuse, in eence, the exce liquidity caused by the world\'s major resources caused by rising commodity prices.Oil and food prices.Promote the expansion of the global proliferation of overlapping products
Promotion of a shortage of oil prices.From 2001 to 2004, the United States, Europe and other countries in order to cope with the economic receion of the situation significantly lower interest rates, money supply increased economic growth generated a huge demand in emerging countries economic development, increase in oil consumption.But the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have been using the \"limited production price\" strategy, resulting in a shortage of oil supply, oil prices continued to rise.As the world\'s oil consumption in the largest energy-based economy, is located at the top of the industry chain, oil prices will have a high demonstration effect, to have a major impact on related industries, will lead to resources on the basis of overall price rise, inflation will push more A high level.International grain prices have also greatly improved.Food prices in part because over the past year because of drought and other natural disasters led to lower production, mainly because many countries carry out bio-fuel development and production, a large number of oil crops cultivation of agricultural crops to reduce the acreage.Food and energy of a high degree of correlation makes the rapid rise of food prices, \"miserable\" to the overall prices, inflation, a serious threat to the food and raw materials in reliance on a higher economic development of developing countries.[Papers net Www_LunWenNet_Com]
美国次贷危机和美元贬值，加剧全球流动性过剩
2004年6月至2006年6月，美联储连续17次上调联邦基金利率，将该利率从1％ 上调至5．25％ 。紧缩性韵货币政策击破了不断膨胀的房地产泡沫，导致次贷危机的爆发。由于全球性的流动性突然收缩，国际金融市场出现信贷短缺，美国和许多欧洲国家央行进行降息和注资以稳定金融市场。这些措施虽然短期缓解了次贷危机带来的流动性紧缩的问题，但降息和注资将使流动性过剩再次出现，全球能源和初级产品价格不可避免上涨。而且利差的存在，使国际短期资本将流向新兴国家进行套利，拉高新兴国家的资产价格，催生经济泡沫。
2002年以来美元大幅贬值，作为国际商品交易中的计价货币，贬值直接导致全球能源和初级产品价格上涨，从而增加全球性通货膨胀的压力。美元贬值，不但使得新兴国家的外汇储备“缩水” ，财富减少，而且新兴国家经济发展大多依赖出口，美元贬值使得其出口商品价格上涨，进口国需求减少，导致新兴国家出口减少、经济增长放缓。
U.S.loan crisis meeting and the dollar, increased global liquidity surplus
From June 2004 to June 2006, 17 times in a row the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate, the interest rate from 1% to 5.25%.Yun tightening of monetary policy to break the ever-expanding real estate bubble, leading to the outbreak of the sub-loan crisis.As the global mobility of all of a sudden contraction in the international financial markets have a shortage of credit, the United States and many European countries to carry out the central bank to cut interest rates and capital
injection in order to stabilize the financial markets.Although these measures are short-term loan to ease the crisis brought about by the time the liquidity crunch, but to cut interest rates and inject liquidity surplus will allow the recurrence of global energy and commodity prices will inevitably rise.And spread the existence of the international short-term capital flows to emerging countries arbitrage, pushed up aet prices in emerging countries, the birth of the bubble economy.
Since 2002, the substantial depreciation of the dollar as the international trade of goods denominated in the currency devaluation as a direct result of the global energy and commodity prices, thus increasing global inflationary preure.Depreciation of the dollar not only makes the foreign exchange reserves in emerging countries, \"shrunk\" to reduce the wealth and economic development in emerging countries most dependent on exports, the depreciation of the dollar makes their export prices, reduced demand for importing countries, leading emerging countries to reduce exports, the economy is slowing down .
应对全球经济滞胀的政策选捧
各国政府应在认清全球经济所面临的现实状况的前提下，根据本国的自身状况来制定宏观经济政策。，对于经济开始或面临下行风险的国家来说，应该首先从治理经济停滞，促进本国经济发展开始。政府可以采取扩张性财政政策，扩大消费需求，从而增加生产和就业。经济增长，能够促进消费水平的增长，可以承受一定程度的通货膨胀。也就是说，各国政府在采取政策时，应将恢复经济增长作为重点，同时兼顾治理通货膨胀。
就目前形势看，次贷危机对中国并没有造成太大的影响，中国经济仍然发展比较稳定。但受国际石油价格和粮食价格上涨的影响，中国目前的通货膨胀水平居高不下。央行对此采取从紧的货币政策，从2007年3月起连续6次提高银行存贷款利率，抑制货币信贷过快增长，以期降低通货膨胀率。2008年中国应该继续将治理通货膨胀作为首要任务，同时防止经济大起大落，在治理通胀和保持经济稳定增长之间寻找平衡。
Stagflation in the global economy should be the policy of holding elections
Governments should recognize the global economy faces the reality of the premise, according to their own situation to the development of macro-economic policies., The economy has begun to face down or risk the country, should first of all from the management of economic stagnation, the economy has begun to promote the country.Government can take expansionary fiscal policy and expand consumer demand, thus increasing production and employment.Economic growth, to promote the consumption level of growth, can afford a measure of inflation.In other words, governments take in the policy should focus on the resumption of economic growth, inflation governance at the same time.
On the current situation, the meeting of Chinese and loan crisis has not caused too much influence China\'s economic development remains relatively stable.However, international oil prices and food prices, China\'s current high level of inflation.Taken from the central bank\'s tight monetary policy, in March 2007 from 6 times in a row to raise bank deposit and lending rates to curb the exceive growth of monetary credit, with a view to reducing the rate of inflation.2008 China should continue to control inflation as a top priority at the same time to prevent big ups and downs in the economy, inflation control and maintain economic stability, to find a balance between
