（一）
World economy
The jobs crisis 失业危机
It’s coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse
不论政府如何努力，失业危机已经到来。不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用
Illustration by Belle Mellor
NOTHING evokes the misery of ma unemployment more than the photographs of the Depreion.You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes.Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work.Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblene no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.
再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦。这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容，褴褛的衣衫，还有他们的眼神。由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点；失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期；受惠于这些计划，至少发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困。
Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depreion, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job.But with the world in its deepest receion since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of ma unemployment looms nonethele, and raises the big question posed in the Depreion: what should governments do?
即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度，后者使美国经济缩水四分之一，四分之一的就业人口失去工作。但随着世界经济出现自1930年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易80年来的最快速萎缩，大规模失业的恶魇再度凸显，并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题：政府应该做些什么？
Join the queue 加入失业队伍
In the rich world the job loes are starkest in America, where the receion began.Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months.The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century.An American who loses his job today has le of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago.That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes.
富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著。自从07年12月经济陷入低迷以来，美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢出了440万份失业，其中在过去三个月内每月产生了60万份。二月的失业率跃升至8.1%，是25年来的最高数字。比起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期，眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作。特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工收入的时候，这种情况尤其令人堪忧。
But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain.In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies.Although unemployment is low, rapid job loes among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairne of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society.
然而显而易见的是，失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国。日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快。尽管失业率尚低，但临时工当中快速增长的失业大军显示了“双层劳工市场”的不公平性，加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张。
In Europe joblene has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere.The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand.Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead.By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.
在欧洲，建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快，而在其他地方则初现端倪。很多欧洲国家的失业率都低于美国，但也许这只是因为它们有更加严格的劳工市场，从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢。面对着快速萎缩的欧洲经济，没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过10%。
In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful.As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain.Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land.The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.
发展中国家的情况就不一样了，只不过结果会更人头疼。随着贸易萎缩，数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链条底端的立锥之地。他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村，伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头。世界银行预计，今年将有约5300万人降到极端贫困线以下。
Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help.That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under preure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs.But help cannot be measured in dollars alone.Badly designed policies can be self-defeating.After the receions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.
政治上，政府必须全力介入进行援助。这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政者们承担着巨大的压力，需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位。然而挽救不能仅以美元来衡量。错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的经济衰退以来，欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下。
Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers.In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package.Japan is giving social aistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored.In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment.Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.
各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助。美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低，而最近出台的经济刺激计划中，扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分。日本为长期以来受忽视的“非固定”劳动者群体提供社会援助。不过总的来说，比起失业补助，资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举。很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足劳工薪资。
These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand.But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived.Even if the receion ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the aet bust and the exceive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come.Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back.People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.
这些措施在一定时限内是合理的：因为在短期内，政府需要尽全力维持需求。只是哎呀，就业危机不大可能只在短期内存在。即便经济衰退很快结束（而且几乎不可能发生），引起这场危机的阴云——资金短缺和过度借贷——将在接下来继续笼罩世界经济长达数年。更有甚者，不论是西班牙的砌砖匠还是华尔街的交易员，很多昔日的就业岗位会一去不复返。人们将被迫告别现有职位，转行进入新岗位。
A difficult dance 艰难的舞步
Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets.That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier for businees to restructure by laying people off.Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire.
在接下来的几年中，政治家们不得不做出一个180度的艰难政策转变：因为从长远来看，他们需要一个灵活的劳动力市场。这意味着废除工作补贴计划，去除受保护劳工的特权，以及帮助企业更方便地裁员从而进行重组。像日本这样具有双层劳动力结构的国家，大量埋头苦干的临时劳工缺乏就业保障，而被娇生惯养的上层员工却能享受到多重保护。这种差别需要通过严格上层员工的裁汰制度加以消除。
The euphemism for that is “flexibility”.The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created.The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead.As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones.Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible.That is going to require fancy political footwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.
这些措施可以委婉地概括为“灵活性”措施。更直白的事实是，现有工作越容易被废弃，新工作就越容易被创造。眼下这些保住人们饭碗的援助计划会在今后成为调整适应今后形势的拖累。随着时间推移，用在保留人员旧岗位的指出需要削减，取而代之的是为新岗位培养劳动者的开支。各国政府需要从支持需求的政策转变为建设一个更灵活的劳动力市场。这种转变需要富有想象力的政治谋划，但确实当政者们必须完成的步骤：因为如果他们不这样做，增长将被遏制。
However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time.At best it will blight millions of lives for years.The politicians’ task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades.
然而，不论政府政策制定的多么完美，失业率在一段时间内仍将陡增。不过充其量它会在几年内让数百万人的生计陷于困境。当政者的任务是不要让这场不幸延续数十年。
（二）
China\'s trade
Surplus to requirements 顺差的需要
Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?
为什么中国的出口大幅下降时，贸易顺差却在增长？
THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy.At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s.China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier.Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007.What is going on?
本周，修正后的数字显示中国在2007年已经超越德国成为世界第三大经济体。在去年初，中国也目标成为世界上最大的出口国，但是年末数月出口的大幅下落意味着他们仍然排在德国之后。按照美元来计算，中国的出口额在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。尽管如此，中国的贸易顺差在第四季度却以全年增速上升到创纪录的4570亿美元，比2007年同期增长了50%。这其中到底有何玄机？
In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart).But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December.The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment.Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports).
2008年上半年，中国的贸易顺差确实出现了缩水（见表）。但是自那以后，尽管出口大跌，但是进口跌的更惨——到12月时，12个月内下跌了21%。进出口双双下滑由于受到全球信贷停滞影响而加剧。这是因为信用冻结导致全世界的公司更加难以获得信用证从而保证支付。出口同样也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉价的原油和商品价格，以及原材料和用于出口产品的部件进口（占到进口总量的50%以上）表现疲软。
But a more worrying reason why China bought le from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened.Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.
但是关于中国进口下降的一个更令人忧虑的原因是：中国的国内需求减小。消费支出和生产投资目前的收缩尚且适当，但是建筑业作为进口原材料的使用大户也出现了急剧下滑。
With most of the world in receion, China’s exports will continue to slide this year.Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years.Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase.By mid-year, the government’s planned maive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery.If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.
随着全球大部分地区陷入衰退，中国的出口今年将继续下滑。野村证券预测的下滑是6%，为25年来的首次下滑。另一方面，进口预计将增长。到年中时，政府计划的基础设施投入大幅增长将会推动原材料和机械进口。这样的话，中国2009年的贸易顺差将会缩水。
The collapse in exports and the consequent job loes in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan.But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers.China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitivene.The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.
出口剧减加上随之而来的中国南方的失业会导致政府考虑人民币贬值。但这将不仅激起美国新政府的保护主义反弹，对生产者也帮助甚小。中国的问题是在于疲软的国外需求，而不是竞争力。支持中国经济乃至帮助全球贸易摆脱不平衡的方法，是加强内需。
One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer.China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months.If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.
本周的一个好消息是：随着减息和政府去除信贷限制，银行信贷总额到12月的12个月中从去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中国也许是最近几个月内世界大经济体中唯一出现信贷增长加速的地方。如果增速持续，它将促进内需支出。
China certainly cannot rely on exports any more.Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.
中国决不能再依赖出口。如果全球贸易持续下降，成为世界最大的出口国亦将无益。
（三）
China\'s stimulus
Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃？
China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work
中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效
“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb.With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand.The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more.Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP.Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?
中国有句民谚：“众人拾柴火焰高。”随着世界经济陷入70年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动。中国是其中的吝啬鬼吗？它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占GDP的3%。难道去年十一月公布的4亿元用于基础设施建设的措施——相当于GDP的14%——仅仅是在忽悠？
Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world.The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit.America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper receion which will depre tax revenue.The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.
北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以适应经济圈的冲击。
In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks.Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009.Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.
然而在中国，经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案，因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金、国有公司或地方政府实施的。瑞银的陶旺（音）预计，新的基础设施建设、减税、消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出，整个刺激方案将占到GDP的4%。
Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming.In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled.China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand.
中国在铁路、公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开。今年头两个月内，固定投资总额较去年同期增长30%，铁路投资增长了3倍。很多批评认为，中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费，但就短期来看，在中国这是提高国内需求最立竿见影的方式。
What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has.New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand.But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit.Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year.The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending.China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.
那么作为提高国内消费另一手段的货币政策又运用的怎样？从去年年初开始，中国已经将利率砍到美联储的一半。新的统计数字显示，到二月，消费品价格较去年下降了1.6%，从而带来了第一轮通货紧缩。这似乎意味着中国在提高需求方面做的尚且不够。但其实，这并不是真正的通货紧缩。真正的通缩情况下，货币供应和信贷会随着物价下降而萎缩。去年，银行借贷增长了24%。对银根放松的正确估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借贷产生。中国作为世界上少有的几个国家，其借贷规模在全球信贷危机爆发后不降反升——尽管部分借贷是在国家指导下进行的。
China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing.By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is paing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.
中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划，还通过让人民币在过去12个月内升值18%（贸易加权考虑在内），部分促进了世界货币经济增长。
The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further.The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%.But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand.As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up.Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year.But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.
真正的问题是：中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大？到今年二月，年出口额下降远超预期，达26%，并且可能继续下挫。工业生产12个月增幅在09年头两个月已将至3.8%，零售业增长放缓至15%。但是仍然有一些国内需求复苏的暂时性指标。除了投资和银行贷款增长外，汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振。野村证券的孙明春（音）认为，经济刺激方案能够实现8%的年度经济增长。但是政府已经明确表示，如果经济持续疲软，将会提供另外的财政提振方案。
Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depreed.The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent.Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies.If not, even China’s fire could burn out.
这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持续悲观，增速便难以维持。对于中国而言，出口转内销的需要已经更加紧迫。中国官员正确地表示，将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款，使得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺。否则，即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭。
（四） The economy\'s stumble 经济的绊足
Air pocket or second dip? 气囊保护还是二次沦陷？
Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition
A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus 9月经济大跌，新刺激方案提上日程
AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures.Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%.Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired.Manufacturing activity cooled a bit.
根据最新统计数据，从春季开始一路高歌猛进的美国经济在9月大幅下跌。非农业职位减少了26.3万个，降幅较8月增加了6.2万个，失业率升至9.8%，增幅0.1%。汽车销量在联邦“旧车换现金”计划结束后陡降。制造业略有放缓。
All this is probably an air pocket; overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow.Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery.But it is taking a painfully long time.“We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released.To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought.That would raise the receion’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce.Auming no further revisions, the receion now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War—exceeding even the 5% lo recorded in 1948.
这一切或许是如“气囊”一般的保护性反应；今年第三季度，经济总量确已开始上升，就业率最终也将随之跟进。证券市场以及新失业津贴政策等主要指标都预示着经济的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。“我们需要逐步恢复经济，”巴拉克•奥巴马在就业数据发布的第二天（10月3日）承认说。雪上加霜的是，劳动统计局表示，截至今年5月，美国经济比预想的进一步减少了82.4万个职位。这使得经济衰退造成的总失业人数达到了800万，占劳动力的5.8%。如果经济停止进一步恶化，那这将是自二战以来最严重的经济衰退——其损失超过了1948年所记载的GDP的5%。
The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic.More than half of businees say they will not return to pre-receion staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist.Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months.
更大的问题在于，就业一旦增加，它仍有可能持续疲软。根据杜克大学及《CFO Magazine》杂志（与《The Economist》同属一家公司）财务长在9月的一份报告，超过半数的公司表示即使其人员编制有所回升，但在2012年之前不会回到衰退前的水平。共有43%的公司计划在未来的12个月中继续裁减人手。
Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy.These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year.More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance.
奥巴马先生和他的顾问们正考虑新的经济提振措施，但其规模将不及今年7870亿美元的刺激计划，后者于明年年底之前将不遗余力的不断向经济注入资金。可能性更大的是，他将延续刺激方案中的某些条款，如下岗职工失业津贴扩面以及健康保险补助等。
The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire.But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th.Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat.This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”.It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day.No one said his job was easy.
“旧车换现金”计划结束所带来的汽车销量下降预示了在诸如购房贷款等刺激措施期满结束后经济所将经历的退缩症状。但是，如果继续实行此类措施，那将会为9月30日截止的本财政年带来预计高达14亿美元的财政赤字。选民们对未来源源不断的财政赤字忧心忡忡，甚至是奥巴马先生的自由派支持者都在火上浇油。本周，众议院议长南希•佩洛西表示，征收增值税应该 “提上日程”。增值税迟早会付诸实施。然而，过早的出台此类税收将有可能阻碍经济恢复，同时，征收新税将会为总统的劲敌们提供反击机会。大家都知道，奥巴马先生过得不容易。
（五）
Signs of economic cheer 经济振奋之征兆
The sun also rises 太阳照常升起
Aug 6th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC From The Economist print edition
The economy may be pulling out of receion but unemployment is still surprisingly high.Celebrations should be delayed 虽然美国经济可能正从衰退中抽身而出，但是失业率仍然居高不下，庆祝理应押后。
WHEN Barack Obama visited Elkhart, Indiana, in early February, a few weeks after his inauguration, it was a sombre affair.In the previous 12 months the area’s unemployment rate had more than tripled to 18.3 %.The president pleaded for the paage of a maive fiscal stimulus, insisting that “doing nothing is not an option.” By the time he returned to Elkhart on August 5th he was quite a bit sunnier.Local factories are “coming back to life”, he proclaimed.A few days earlier he had declared the economy to have done “measurably better” than expected.
在早前的2月份，就职数周的奥巴马总统到访了印第安娜州的埃尔德哈特。总统此行笼罩着一层阴郁的气氛，因为在此前的十二个月当中，当地的失业率达到了18.3%，是原来的三倍还多。总统随即恳求通过大规模财政刺激方案，并坚持说，“绝不能坐以待毙。”8月5日，当再次来到埃尔德哈特时总统心情愉悦了一些，他表示本地工厂正在“恢复生机。” 几天之前，他已经宣布了经济已比预期有“显著好转”的消息。
Mr Obama’s good spirits are well grounded: America’s receion appears to be coming to an end.On July 31st the government reported that real gro domestic product (GDP) contracted in the second quarter, but at only a 1% annual rate.Much of that decline reflected busine’s determination to keep factories and workers idle and fill new orders out of existing inventory.Now, stocks are so depleted that production will soon have to restart.
奥巴马的好精神是有根有据的，因为美国的衰退似乎正趋于结束。7月31号的政府报告中指出，第二季度的国内生产总值虽然收缩，但仅为年率收缩1%。而此收缩很大程度上反映了暂时闲置工厂和工人，用存货交付订单的商业决策。现在存货已经消耗殆尽，恢复生产势在必行。
The clutch of data now available for July has strengthened expectations that GDP will rise in the current quarter by as much as 3%.An index of manufacturing activity rose to its highest level since last August, and manufacturers reported that new orders were growing briskly, the best in over two years.Car sales jumped 15% to an annualised 11.2m and manufacturers are ramping up production.Sales of existing houses have risen.Even battered Elkhart got some good news: on August 4th Dometic, a supplier of recreational-vehicle parts, said that with some help from local incentives it would add 240 jobs to its operation in the town.
现有的很多7月份数据都为之前的预期--本季度GDP将会增长3%，提供了有力支持。制造业活跃指数提升到了8月份以来最高，制造商报告说新订单增长活跃，达到两年来最佳水平；汽车销量飙升15%，按年率计达1,120万辆，制造商也正在加大生产；现房的销售量有所提升。就连备受折磨的埃尔德哈特也有喜讯传来：在8月4号，一个名为Dometic的游艺车部件供应商说，在本地刺激因素的帮助下，公司将在本市增添240个工作岗位。
Mr Obama and his aides have wasted no time in crediting the $787 billion fiscal stimulus for spurring this recovery.In fact the stimulus’s contribution so far has been relatively modest.More important was last autumn’s maive injection of public capital, loans and loan guarantees into the financial system, and this spring’s bank stre tests.These stopped the spiral of declining aet prices, credit withdrawals and bank failures that had threatened to turn a receion into a depreion.
为了刺激经济复苏，奥巴马总统和他的助手们马不停蹄地投入到了7870亿美元的财政刺激计划中。事实上，到目前为止这个刺激计划似乎贡献平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融体系的大规模公有资本注入，提供给金融体系的大量贷款和贷款担保，以及今年春季的银行压力测试却发挥了更大作用。这些措施阻止了急剧下滑的资产价格、信贷退出和银行倒闭，将经济从衰退滑向大萧条的危急关头中拉了回来。
One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years.Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.
最振奋人心的消息莫过于在4月到5月之间S&P/Case-Shiller （美国房价的领先衡量标准）20大城市房价指数仅下跌0.2%，是两年来最小幅度。稳定的房价对减少贷款拖欠会起到奇效，还可以支撑银行的资产负债表，起到恢复信贷流动的作用。
Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping.This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so.Unemployment usually responds to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s.But it has risen more during this receion than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.
消息有好有坏，奥巴马总统的支持率虽然仍然算高，但是正处于下滑状态，部分原因应归咎于并无好转的就业形势（就业是一项最为重要的单一经济基准），在经济好转的前提下这样的就业形势着实令人吃惊。经济学家亚瑟欧坤在十九世纪六十年代捕捉到，失业率与经济增长有关并通常随之做出反应。但是在此次衰退中，失业率的上升幅度远比欧坤法则的众多公式推导出的幅度大的多。
The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy.The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest receion since the Depreion (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%).Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.
上周公布的GDP修改数据可以解释一些不符之处。修改数据显示自2007年底GDP累计下降3.7%，可堪比发生在1957到58年自大萧条以来最严重的衰退（修改前的数据显示下降仅为2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的经济学家迈克尔▪费拉里说，按照欧坤法则预测第二季度的失业率应仅为8.6%，而实际的失业率达到平均9.3%。
Several factors are at work.Expanded unemployment-insurance benefits encourage some workers to keep looking for a job rather than drop out of the workforce altogether, adding perhaps half a percentage point to the unemployment rate, according to the Fed.The evisceration of their wealth may have led people to look for work rather than retire or stay at home with the children.
成因存在于几方面。扩大的失业保险收益鼓励着一些人继续寻找工作而不是彻底退出劳动大军。根据美联储消息，这部分人口大约占失业率的0.5%。做了财富切除手术的人们更可能选择找工作而不是退休或回家带孩子。
And firms have been unusually quick to slash payrolls.Some may be husbanding cash more carefully because of the credit crunch.Others may simply be more peimistic about an eventual recovery.Whatever the reason, one result is that productivity is rising, cushioning profit margins.Robert Hall of Stanford University, who heads the academic committee that dates receions, says Okun devised his law in an era when productivity usually fell during receions: “When productivity rises, the law fails.Though I was a great fan of Okun’s, I’m afraid his law is obsolete.”
各公司对于削减工资表现得异乎寻常地敏捷。因为信贷紧缩的缘故，一些公司可能更为仔细的节约现金，另一些可能只是对最终到来的经济恢复更加悲观。无论是什么原因，得到的结果之一就是生产率上升的同时利润率下降。斯坦福大学的罗伯特▪霍尔是判断经济衰退起始期的学术委员会委员长，他表示欧坤是在经济衰退中通常生产率降低的时代创造出欧坤法则的，“当生产率上升，法则失效。尽管作为一个曾经狂热的欧坤迷，我还是得说他的法则已经过时了。”
The difference with Europe is especially striking.In the euro zone GDP has fallen further than in America but unemployment has risen le (see chart).Employers are slower to sack workers than in America, partly thanks to government subsidies that encourage them to shorten working hours instead (see article).This means that European unemployment will probably be slow to fall once GDP recovers.
美国与欧洲的差距尤为显著。在欧元区GDP下降幅度比美国要大但是失业率的上升却不及美国（如图）。欧洲雇主们不像美国雇主们那样急于解雇员工，这应部分归功于政府补助，用以鼓励他们用缩短劳动时间来取代解雇员工的做法（见文章）。这就意味着一旦GDP恢复，欧洲失业率将很可能缓慢回落。
But it looks as if it will be slow to come down in America as well.Firms are unlikely to do much hiring until growth seems durable, and so far it does not.Replenishing inventory will be a temporary fillip without an increase in consumer demand.Car sales have been strong in great part because of the federal cash-for-clunkers programme, which allows Americans to get up to $4,500 for their old car when they exchange it for a new one.The programme was supposed to run until November 1st but its $1 billion was snapped up within days of its start on July 24th.The House of Representatives has voted for an extra $2 billion and at mid-week the Senate was expected to do likewise.But cars bought now may mean fewer cars bought later.
然而美国失业率似乎也将缓慢回落。企业在出现稳定增长之前不会大量雇佣人员，而到目前为止还未看到稳定增长迹象。补充商品存货只是一个短暂刺激，消费需求不会因此增长。联邦政府的“旧车换现金”计划是给予通过以旧换新方式购买新车的消费者拿到最多4500美元的补助，因此美国汽车销售大幅度增长。原本支持该计划进行到11月1号为止的10亿资金在7月24号活动开始之后的几天之内就耗尽了。众议院已经投票通过了为该计划追加20亿美元的决议，此议案预计本周三也将通过参议院审议。但是现阶段踊跃的汽车销售意味着未来阶段汽车销量将会少之又少。
If growth peters out again later this year, it will dash the expectations Mr Obama has done so much to raise by touting his stimulus.Dick Moore, Elkhart’s mayor, has been so enthusiastic about federal support that some county officials harrumph that he sleeps in Obama pyjamas.Though the president obligingly promised $39m for a local unit of Navistar to make electric trucks, it will take time for the firm to scale up production and hire workers.Meanwhile, Dorinda Heiden-Gu, who heads the county’s economic-development group, has been barraged with requests from companies seeking incentives.But many of them do so without a semblance of a busine plan.
如果在今年晚些时候经济再次逐渐停止增长，人们对未来预期的信心就会烟消云散。这信心是靠着奥巴马总统兜售他的经济刺激计划辛辛苦苦建立起来的。埃尔得哈特市长迪克▪摩尔对联邦资助表现地甚为积极致使一些本市官员不耻地说他和奥巴马同穿一条裤子。虽然总统亲切地作出了给名为纳威斯达的地方单位拨款3900万美元的保证，用以制造电动卡车，但是进行大规模生产和雇佣员工仍需要很多时间。与此同时，本市经济发展组组长Dorinda Heiden-Gu还在经受来自各公司要求寻找经济刺激点的枪林弹雨，可是它们中的许多公司就连装装样子的企业计划都没有。
Another caveat: all numbers are subject to revision, perhaps years later.Even the Depreion is getting worse.According to the latest revisions, GDP fell 26.7% between 1929 and 1933: the pre-revision figure was a mere 26.6%.Today’s green shoots could still be revised away.
另一个警告：所有数字已修改数字为准，而数字可能在几年以后才会修改，即使是大萧条时期也是如此，数字越改越差。根据最新的数据显示在1929到1933年间GDP下滑26.7%，在此之前的修改数字仅为26.7%。今日的经济增长春芽有朝一日也可能被修剪得所剩无几。
（六）
China’s economy
中国经济Slower boat from China “中国号”减速
Oct 20th 2008 | GUANGZHOU From Economist.com
Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll 由于世界经济不景气的影响，中国经济增速放缓
Shutterstock PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising.On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003.Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West.It is now becoming neceary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys.
也许这不值得大惊小怪。周一（10月20日）中国国家统计局发布第三季度经济数据：相对去年同期增长9％。以欧美标准来说，这已经非常令人满意了，但却比上一季度的10.1％低了不少（上一季度相对于更前的一个季度的经济增速已经降低了）。第三季度的经济增长率是中国自2003年年初以来的最低值。而在此前中国经济能够完全与西方“脱钩”的希望消失的氛围中，普遍预计中国经济增速会有一个更温和的下降。现在依照最近的每日数据来重新评估中国的经济享有多大的独立性显得非常有必要了。
It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems.This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation.For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound.Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials.All of that has now reversed.There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery. 现在越来越难说中国是否能相对地不受全球金融危机的影响。单是这个月，两个大型公司，玩具制造商合俊集团和钢铁制造商中国金属就已经进入破产清算程序。除了这些极少数有公开消息倒闭的公司外，还有成千上万的公司无声无息地消失了。今年早些时候，中国南方遭受了“劳动荒”，好多鞋厂无法完成靴子和其它需要众多劳动力和原料的订单。所有这些情况，现在已经完全颠倒过来了：这里拥有过剩的劳动力但却缺乏订单，而且没有一点复苏的迹象。
One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world.The first part of the autumn seion ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report.In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests.This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant.The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders.A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices.This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then.
在中国贸易日历上最重大的事件之一就是久负盛名的广交会。在这里有着全国各地的制造商和来自世界各地的采购商。秋季广交会的第一部分已于10月19日结束，但是几乎没有什么好消息值得报道。在好的年份，广州的酒店会双倍收费甚至客满拒入。但这次，酒店费用依然很高但是却有大量空闲。虽然广交会上不至于门庭冷落，但是以通常标准来看，在欧美重要客户缺席的情况下，人流不算拥挤。许多参展商抱怨订单太少。而在一年前这些参展商还由于大宗商品价格的上升而要求提高在订货合同里加上价格自动调整条款。而今年，一位来自阿曼的建筑公司的客户表示他从价格下跌中获利不少，而且他还补充说，价格下跌的速度要比其之前上升的速度快得多。
China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone.There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption (despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%) and government spending.Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and property have all fallen; production of steel has declined too.A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics.
然而中国经济增速放缓不能仅将责任归咎于出口问题。渣打银行的Stephen Green表示，中国经济到处都出现警报信号，诸如投资、消费（尽管九月份名义零售额9月份增长23％）和政府开支。汽车、服装、机票和房地产的销售都在下降，钢铁生产量同样也在下降。这些仅有一小部分原因归咎于奥运的原因而关闭了一些工厂。
If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year—a different era, in hindsight—to prevent overheating.In this, there is some hope.China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies.Inflation is declining.The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years.China’s government is in a strong financial position.Savings rates for the Chinese are high.
如果有什么值得乐观的话，那就是经济增长放缓部分的原因是由于中国政府自己去年（现在看来，那是一个完全不同时代）努力阻止经济过热的结果。基于此，现在仍有希望。由于一些不良贷款增加以及一些城市银行被怀疑存在问题，中国的金融状况不是非常完美，但是仍有足够的空间来放松财政和货币政策。大型国有银行看来状态非常好，由于在过去两年里贷款上限已经被非常严格地执行了，所以他们的流动性非常充足。中国政府的财政状况非常好。中国人民的储蓄率非常高。
As a result, there is abundant room for more aggreive fiscal policies, continuance—if not expansion—of credit, and domestic growth in consumption.Rumours of the potential government response are widespread.Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed.Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property.Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected.All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately.Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset.If the global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity.
因此，中国积极的财政政策的实施，即便不算扩张的也是持续的信贷投放和国内消费的增长仍有非常大的空间。最近，有关中国政府可能会有举措的传言四起。去年被废除的出口指标退税可能会被恢复。而且房地产交易契税也正在被考虑取消。政府还可能增大在用水和交通项目上的开支。这些都会直接或者间接地刺激需求。这些措施都将减缓世界经济下降带来的压力，但是缓和不等于抵消。不能说全球经济动荡啥作用也没有，至少它揭示了世界最快经济体和发达国家繁荣兴盛的共同关系。
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Emerging markets All fall down都跌了
Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition Firms in developing countries struggle to escape their roots发展中国家中的公司挣扎着逃命
STOCKMARKET bubbles often take a genuine improvement in economic orcorporate performance, and then vastly overestimate its effect.Equityinvestors in emerging markets must wonder if they have once again beensuckered into giving developing countries the benefit of the doubt.Prices have fallen by almost half this year.On October 6themerging-market shares recorded their biggest one-day fall in at least20 years, prompting all-too-familiar scenes of chaos followed byenforced inactivity, as trading at some bourses was suspended.股市泡沫常常带来真正的经济或公司经营改进，接踵而来的是大规模过高估计其效果。新兴市场的股市投资者肯定在疑问着他们是否又被骗入,因为发展中国家原来就是疑团。这些国家的股市今年已经下跌近一半。10月6日，新兴市场的股价下跌创了20年来的最大跌幅，导致了人们太熟悉的混乱场面，跟着来到是强制性停止活动，例如在一些交易所停止了交易。
For bullish investors one attraction of emerging economies was thefact that they had started with better public finances andbalance-of-payments positions than in previous cycles.How resilientthose positions are is now being tested, as plunging commodity priceap export earnings and capital flows dry up.Even sound economies maystill be dragged down.As Stephen Jen, an economist at Morgan Stanley,points out, in a crisis “bad things happen to good countries”.对于那些看好的投资人来讲，与以前各次循环相比，此次新兴经济一个吸引人地方在于他们以更好的公共债务及收支平衡作为起始。当大宗商品价格暴跌，使得出口收入受到影响，且资本流处于枯竭，这些国家的那些状况有强劲目前正受到考验。即使那些最健康的经济也可能被拉下水。大摩的经济学家Stephen Jen指出，在危机中“好的国家会发生坏事情”。
Equity investors’ enthusiasm also reflected a more novel idea—thatthe quality of emerging-market companies had improved.Rather than anold guard of conglomerates with hazy ownership and accounting, thethesis ran, there was a new generation of large, well run, globallycompetitive “mega-cap” firms.Indeed, these might even be le riskythan their homelands’ governments.And just as the Dutch economy haslittle bearing on Royal Dutch Shell’s share price, or the Britisheconomy on Vodafone’s, the hope was that these firms might eventuallytranscend their domestic markets.
股票投资人的兴高采烈也反映了更新颖的看法—新兴市场里的公司质量已经改善了。相当普遍的看法是，这些公司已经不是老式那种拥有者及会计制度模糊不清的国际集团，替代而来的是新一代大型，运营良好，世界范围中有竞争力的“超大型”公司。真的，这些公司的风险可能比他们所在国的政府都少。正如荷兰经济不会影响皇家壳牌石油公司的股价一样，或是英国经济与Vodafone并不紧连，希望是这些公司可能已经超越了其国内市场。
Some of the claims were over the top.In April 2007 Gazprom, anenergy firm controlled by the Kremlin, made a Dr-Evil-style predictionthat its market value would reach $1 trillion (ten times today’slevel).But there was substance too, exemplified by the wave ofcredible bids for Western companies before the credit crunch, such asthe multibillion approach by Vale, a Brazilian miner, for Xstrata.有些叫法有些太过头。在2007年月，由俄国政府控制的能源公司Gazprom宣布了一个恶魔式的预测，估计其市值将达到一万亿美金（是目前市值的10倍）。但是这些公司也有行动，在信贷紧缩前不断出价收购西方公司，例如巴西的矿业公司Vale出手上千亿美金收购 Xstrata就是实例。
EPAJust like the old days 跟过去一样
Why then, have most emerging stockmarkets fallen by more thanWestern ones, particularly in the past month? There are some plausiblefundamental explanations.They may have been more overvalued to startwith.Even after their tumble, the aggregate price-earnings ratio is inline with developed markets, rather than at the discount that has beenthe historical norm.The composition of most indices also makes themvulnerable.Almost two-fifths of the earnings of the FTSEemerging-markets benchmark are from highly cyclical energy orbasic-materials companies—twice the share in developed markets—soearnings forecasts are falling faster than for developed peers.Mostindices under-represent mainland China, which has been relativelyresilient in recent weeks, on the grounds that it is hard forforeigners to invest there.And the top 20 companies account for justover a quarter of the FTSE emerging-markets index.Although that is ahigher proportion than in developed economies, it still leaves a longtail of smaller firms which may be le well run.那么为什么多数新兴股市下跌幅度超过西方国家的股市跌幅，特别是上个月的下跌呢？这里有些可信的基本解释。这些新兴股市开始时可能就是估值过高了。就是当他们暴跌后，其本益比才与发达国家的本益比接近，而不是历史上常见的削价出售。多数这些市场的指数组成也使得这些市场更加不堪一击。在FTSE新兴市场指数中，几乎五分之二的收益是高度紧跟经济循环的能源或基本原材料公司，这是发达市场指数中的两倍。所以收益预测下降比发达市场的要快。中国大陆在多数这些指数中的表现不足（而中国大陆在近几周来相对强劲），这是基于外国人很难在那里进行投资的观点。在FTSE新兴市场指数中，前20家公司占了超过四分之一的地位。虽然这比发达经济多了许多，但仍剩下很多运营不如他们的很多较小公司。
As well as quirks of composition and valuation, the harsh reality isthat, as in previous crises, investors are not discriminating much.Most “mega-cap” companies have been penalised more heavily thanrich-world peers in the same industry.Credit-default swaps, a type ofinsurance against bankruptcy, suggest that the borrowing costs of bigemerging-markets firms have spiked along with those of their homecountries’ governments.This is despite the fact that emerging-marketindustrial companies in aggregate, like their governments, have lowerdebt levels than their Western equivalents.Shares of emerging-marketbanks, which with the exception of a few places such as Ruia are inreasonable shape, have plunged in sympathy with their Western peers.与指数组成及价值受到扭曲一样，与以前的危机相同，残酷的现实是投资人并没有细细选择。多数“超大型”公司已经受到的惩罚要比其富裕国家同类行业公司要重得多。信贷违约掉期合同，即防止破产的保险合同，表明大型新兴市场公司的贷款费用以及其所在国政府的贷款费用已经大幅上升。尽管在事实上，这些新兴市场制造业公司总体来讲，与其政府一样，债务水平都比其西方同类的要低。新兴市场的银行股价，除了几个例外情况外，例如俄国，均处于合理状态，但是也与其西方同行一起暴跌。
There may well have been structural improvements in emergingeconomies, but just now markets are having none of it.That couldpresent a buying opportunity.But if capital remains scarce for toolong, and big companies struggle to refinance their foreign debt,investors’ gut reaction could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
虽然新兴经济已经有了结构性改善，但是目前市场中并没有反映这些。这就给出了买入机会。但是如果资本长期处于短缺状态，大型公司挣扎着转贷其外债，投资人的大胆举动可能会变成自圆其说了。
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There is hope 希望仍在 Africa There is hope Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition
Despite the persistence of Africa’s natural and man-made horrors, the latest trend is cheeringly positive
天灾人祸不断 局势有望好转
UNTIL the past few weeks of global turmoil, Africa’s doughty band of boosters were feeling they at last had something to smile about.After four decades of political and economic stagnation that kept most of their 800m-odd people in poverty and gloom, the continent’s 48 sub-Saharan countries have been growing for the past five years at a perky overall rate of 5% or so.If they maintain this pace or even bump it up a bit, Africa still has a chance of taking off.Now, with commodity prices likely to fall, world markets sure to shrivel and Western aid set to plateau or even dip, Africa, though more isolated from the global economy than other parts of the world, is bound to suffer from its ill breeze.But maybe not as badly.Once described by this newspaper, perhaps with undue harshne, as “the hopele continent”, it
could yet confound its legion of gloomsters and show that its oft-heralded renaiance is not just another false dawn prompted by the paing windfall of booming commodity prices, but the start of something solid and sustainable.Despite its manifold and persistent problems of lousy governments and erratic climates (see article), Africa has a chance of rising.经过了持续几周的全球*，致力于推动非洲发展的改革者们终于可以略展笑颜。政治，经济上40多年的停滞不前曾使非洲8亿的人民的人们陷入贫穷和黑暗，但最近5年来，48个撒哈拉以南的非洲国家正以5%的总体速率飞速发展。如果他们能使这一速率维持甚至略有提高，非洲将有望摆脱贫困。现今日用品价格有望下调，世界市场将必然走向萎缩，相应地，西方的援助也会趋于稳定，甚至有所下降。尽管与其他地方相比，非洲地区相对独立于全球经济，却也难免殃及池鱼。“无望的陆地”本报从前曾这样过于苛刻地描述过这片土地。但也许，现实并非如此糟糕，以至于会让许多持悲观态度的人会感到不解，并且不时显现的复苏迹象也不只是日用品价格飙升所带来的表面繁荣，这一切昭示着一个切切实实的开端。尽管不良政权和多变气候有其重重弊端，非洲仍有望崛起
A long way to go 长路漫漫
Peimists have plenty of evidence to call on.There have been spurts of growth before, especially when commodity prices have risen sharply.But when those prices have fallen, growth has fizzled.Africa’s few recent succees tend to be set against a previous history of disaster.Ghana, for instance, is often cited as one of the most hopeful cases, but at independence in 1957 it was nearly as well off as South Korea; now, despite its recent bounce, it is still some 30 times poorer in wealth per person.The lively growth in several other hopeful spots—for instance, Mozambique, Rwanda and Uganda—must likewise be set against the horrors of their quite recent past.In fact, the sole country in Africa with a record of consistently strong political and economic progre is Botswana.悲观主义者仍可言之凿凿。过往的日子里，特别是日用品价格飙升之际，经济增长多是昙花一现。但一旦价格回落，这种涨势则不堪一击。然而，非洲近来为数不多的成功例子则与先前灾难历史形成鲜明对比。加纳，是一个人们乐于引用的希望之地，但是早在1957年这个国家宣布独立之时，它的富足程度就可比南韩，而现今，尽管近期经济局势略有反弹，但同比于韩国，国民人均财富仍缩水了30倍。另外几个国家的所谓“希望”，例如莫桑比克，卢旺达，乌干达，也只是与过往苦难形成的鲜明对比。实际上，唯一的一个保有政治经济上强有力持续增长的国家是博茨瓦纳。
Many basic indices remain grim.Africans’ lifespan is still declining, owing largely to the scourge of AIDS, 60% of whose worldwide victims are African.A recent World Bank paper was guarded as to whether the African surge would last.Most of the quicker growth, it notes, is due to soaring revenues enjoyed by just eight sub-Saharan African countries bleed with oil.A third of Africa’s countries—by far the highest proportion in any continent—are trapped in civil wars or cycles of violent unrest.The two biggest in area, Sudan and Congo, are ravaged by strife and misgovernment.Zimbabwe, once a jewel of southern Africa, is still a nightmare, despite a recent agreement to forge a government of national unity.The World Bank paper bemoans Africa’s standards of governance.很多基本指标仍不容乐观。非洲的人均寿命仍在下降，很大一部分归因于艾滋病，这一疾病60%的受害者都来自非洲。一份最新的世界银行报表对于非洲的增长势头能否持续持谨慎态度。报表显示，高于平均速度的大部分增长只是得益于8个撒哈拉以南的产油国由于石油产出所带来的国民收入。三分之一的非洲国家（目前为止占所有大洲的最高比例）陷于内战和暴动的漩涡。两个最突出的例子，苏丹和刚果，被长年的战乱和暴政摧毁。津巴布韦，这个曾被称为南非宝石的地方，尽管最近达成一项致力于建立国家统一政府的协定，如今却也成了一场噩梦。这份世界银行的报表对于非洲标准的政府管理表示出悲观态度。
Perhaps even more worrying, in the past year or so, three of Africa’s leading countries have had heavy setbacks.Nigeria’s election was the shoddiest since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999; Kenya, east Africa’s hub, succumbed to ethnic mayhem after a disputed poll; and South Africa, easily the sub-Saharan continent’s leading power in every way, producing one-third of its entire GDP, has entered an ugly phase of politics, authoritarian if not yet undemocratic, just when it should be setting an example of tolerant pluralism to the rest of Africa.The recent violence against black foreigners is a reminder that the bottom third of South Africans still face gnawing poverty.但也许更令人担忧的是，大约在去年，非洲大陆的三个巨头都遭遇了严重倒退。自从1999年这个国家转变为文官统治以来，尼日利亚的大选遭遇了最严重的舞弊。肯尼亚，作为东非的轴心，在一次富有争议的选举之后经历了种族迫害。在各个方面作为撒哈拉以南领军国家的南非，国民生产总值占据整个GDP的三分之一，理应为其他非洲国家树立包容榜样，其政府却接近独裁的边缘。最近反对外国黑人的暴力事件提醒世人，三分之一的底层南非人民仍然面对着重重贫困。
All the same, the boosters’ case is stronger than before.Political freedom, however patchy, is commoner than it was a generation ago.Two-thirds of African countries now limit presidential terms; at least 14 leaders (with a few bad exceptions) have felt obliged to step down as a result.Multi-party systems, however fraught, are more usual; the notion of political accountability and choice is more widely accepted.The media, partly because of the internet, are livelier.The latest index of African governance funded by Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-born telecoms mogul, suggests a general improvement.与此同时，改革势头也更加明朗。政治自由尽管有待完善，却比上一代更加普遍。三分之二的非洲国家现在已经对总统任期加以限制。至少14位领导人被迫下野。多党制尽管情势紧张，却也普及更广。政治义务和选择权的观念更加深入人心。由于互联网的部分原因，媒体变得更加活跃。由Mo Ibrahim（出生于苏丹的电信巨头）资助设立的最新的非洲行政指数，表明了一种普遍的进步。
The presumption of state control under the rubric of “African socialism” (an illusory third way) has been junked.Most local leaders accept that Africa must join the global economy to prosper, however shaky it looks right now.The mobile-phone revolution has hugely helped Africans, especially poor peasants and traders.Banking systems are modernising and mortgages more readily offered to an emerging middle cla.Businemen around the world have been investing more, especially in Africa’s better-governed countries.Even those that lack natural wealth have grown a bit faster.The spectacular advent of China into Africa’s market is, on balance, a bonus.
非洲社会主义（不靠谱的第三种途径）红字下的国家统治假设已被证明是一堆垃圾。大多数地方领导人相信，尽管现在看起来局势不定，非洲繁荣离不开世界经济。手机革命大大帮助了非洲人民，特别是贫困的农民和商人。银行系统正处于现代化，信贷业务也对新兴的中产阶级更加开放。世界各地商人的投资力度也不断加强，尤其是对治理较好的非洲国家。即使是那些自然资源匮乏的国家增长速度也在加快。中国进军非洲市场，总的来说，利大于弊。
Another report, co-sponsored by the World Bank, gently dients from the certitudes of the “Washington consensus” that pure free marketry could cure all, and that Africa must just open up to trade, tighten its fiscal strings and sell off the state.One size in varied Africa does not fit all.The rich world could, for instance, offer time-limited trade preferences.同样由世行联合发起的另一项报告，则对“华盛顿共识”颇有微词，“共识”确信，纯粹的自由市场是一剂万能药，非洲应当实行贸易开放，加强财政紧缩，清偿国家。然而针对非洲国家的不同情况，不能一以概之，比如，富裕国家倾向于提供具有时限的贸易优先权。
Feel each stone as you cro the river 摸着石头过河
Other devices could help too.America’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act of 2000 has spurred African exports by dropping American tariffs.Another promising new mechanism is the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, a voluntary code that a score of African countries have adopted, with governments and foreign firms accounting openly for their dealings—in contrast to mineral-rich Congo, whose government ludicrously claimed in 2006 to have received only $86,000 in mineral earnings.The creation of national savings funds in commodity-flush countries is another good idea.On the farming front, iuing individual land titles, no easy task in a continent where much land is still communally held, is another.Pragmatism often beats dogma.其他的方法也会带来裨益。美洲的“非洲成长与机会2000年法案”，通过下调美洲关税刺激了非洲出口。另一个方案是“采掘行业透明度行动计划”，这是一项已有12个非洲国家参与的自愿履行的规则，政府与国外公司将公开交易，与富产矿产的刚果形成鲜明对比（该国可笑地宣称2006年的矿产收入只有$86,000。对于轻工业国家，国家储备基金的建立也不失为一个好主意。对于农业方面，将土地定位个人名下也是一个好办法。在一片土地共有的大陆上，似乎很难成事。现实总是会击败教条。
So Africa has a rare chance to break out of its poverty trap.It would be hard even if governments were honest and efficient.Sadly, most are still not.Amid all the grim drawbacks of climate, disease, illiteracy and ethnic division, bad and corrupt government is still by far the biggest.But the news overall is cheerier.And the rich world, troubled as it is, must never give up in its effort to help the poor one to stand on its own feet.所以非洲现在有一个摆脱贫困陷阱的难得机会。即使对于一个诚信高效的政府，这一切仍是不易，更不要说，大多数政府并非如此。算上气候，疾病，文盲，种族分化种种不利，政府腐败仍是最大的弊端。但总体的消息还是令人鼓舞。而那些富裕的国家也有他们的烦恼，但他们绝不会放弃帮助贫困国家自力更生的努力。
（九）
The credit crunch 信贷危机
Saving the system 拯救系统 Oct 9th 2008 From The Economist print edition
At last a glimmer of hope, but more boldne is needed to avert a global economic catastrophe 最后还有一线希望，为避免一场全球经济大灾难发生，还需要更大胆
CONFIDENCE is everything in finance.Until this week the politicians trying to tackle the credit crunch had done little to restore this eential ingredient.In America Congre dithered over the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out plan.In Europe governments have casually played beggar-my-neighbour politics, with countries launching deposit-guarantee schemes that destabilize banks elsewhere.This week, however, saw the first glimmers of a comprehensive global answer to the confidence gap.对金融而言，信心就是全部。到本周为止，那些努力应对信贷危机的政要们在重建信心这一基本因素上作为甚少。在美国，国会犹豫不决地通过了布什政府7000亿美元的救市计划。在欧洲，政府间随意地玩着以邻为壑的政治游戏，各国纷纷对本国存款进行担保，没有顾及这样会动摇其他国家的银行。然而，还是让人们看到了第一束希望的曙光——全球将一致行动弥合信心裂缝。
One clear sign was an unprecedented co-ordinated interest-rate cut on October 8th by the world’s main central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and (officially a coincidence) the People’s Bank of China.Various continental European countries also set about recapitalizing their banks.But the most astounding developments were in America and Britain.The Fed doubled the amount of money available to banks on a short-term basis to $900 billion and announced that it would buy unsecured commercial paper directly from corporate borrowers.More surprisingly, Gordon Brown’s government, hitherto the ditherer par excellence, produced the first systemic plan for dealing with the crisis, not just providing capital and short-term loans to banks but also offering to guarantee new debt for up to three years.一个明确的信号是10月8日全球主要央行空前地联合降息，其中包括美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行（英格兰银行）和中国央行（官方称是巧合）。许多欧洲大陆国 家也开始计划调整银行资本结构。但最令人惊骇的进展发生在美国和英国。美联储将对其短期内对银行提供的贷款规模扩大到9000亿美元，为原来的两倍，并宣布将直接从企业购买未担保的商业票据。更令人惊讶的是，迄今为止不知所措到极点的戈登?布朗政府采取了应对危机的第一个系统的计划，不仅向银行提供资本和 短期贷款，还对三年内到期的新债进行担保。
This is certainly progre, but it is not enough (see our extended finance section).The world’s finance ministers and central bankers, gathering in Washington, DC, this weekend for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, should deliver a simple meage: more will be done.The world economy is plainly in a poor state, but it could get a lot worse.This is a time to put dogma and politics to one side and concentrate on pragmatic answers.That means more government intervention and co-operation in the short term than taxpayers, politicians or indeed free-market newspapers would normally like.这的确是个进步，但还不够。本周末，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行的年会将在华盛顿召开，与会的世界各国财长和央行行长应该传递出一条简单的信 息：还会有更多行动。世界经济很显然处于糟糕的境地，但它很可能会更糟糕。现在正是将教条和政见搁到一旁，集中寻找实实在在的解决方式的时候。意即，就眼前来说政府干预和合作更重要，而不是报纸通常所青睐报道的纳税人、政客或是对自由市场的质疑（诸如此类问题）。
The patient writhing on the floor 在地板上痛苦挣扎的病人
If the panic that has choked the arteries of credit acro the globe is not calmed soon, the danger will increase that output in rich economies will not simply shrink, but collapse.The same could happen in many emerging markets, especially those that rely on foreign capital.No country or industry would be spared from the equivalent of a global financial heart attack.如果阻塞了全球信贷大动脉的恐慌不能迅速被平息，发达国家经济面临的风险将会增加，其产出不会只是收缩，而是崩溃。同样的危机还会发生在新兴市场，尤其是那些依赖外资的地区。没有一个国家或是产业会在全球金融心脏病发作时毫发无伤。
Stockmarkets are in a funk.But the main problem remains the credit markets.In the interbank market the prices banks pay to borrow money from each other are still near record highs.Meanwhile corporate borrowers have found it hard to iue commercial paper, as money-market funds have fled from all but the safest aets.In emerging markets bond spreads have soared and local currencies plunged.And whole countries have begun to get into trouble.The government of Iceland has had to nationalise two of its biggest banks and is frantically seeking a lifeline loan from Ruia.Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, says there could be balance-of-payments problems in up to 30 developing countries.各国股市都处在恐慌之中。但主要的问题仍在信贷市场。银行间拆借市场的利率继续创出新高。同时，随着货币市场资金纷纷逃离到最安全的资产上，企业借贷者发 现商业票据难以发行。新兴市场上，债券价格飞涨，本国货币贬值。有些国家已经开始陷入困境。冰岛政府被迫将其最大的两家银行国有化，并发狂似的向俄罗斯寻求续命贷款。世界银行主席罗伯特?佐立克表示，超过30个发展中国家将出现国际收支差额问题。
The damage to the real economy is becoming apparent.In America consumer credit is now shrinking, and around 159,000 Americans lost their jobs in September, the most since 2003.Some industries are hurting badly: car sales are at their lowest level in 16 years as would-be buyers are unable to get credit.General Motors has temporarily shut some of its factories in Europe.Acro the globe forward-looking indicators, such as surveys of purchasing managers, are horribly gloomy.实体经济受到的损伤正在逐渐显现。美国消费信贷在收缩，9月失业人数高达159,000人，创2003年以来最高。一些产业也被严重挫伤：因为意愿购车消费者无法取得贷款，汽车销售量降到16年以来最低。通用汽车临时关闭了数家欧洲工厂。全球经济展望的指标，如采购经理人指数等，都表现得十分低迷。
If the odds of a rich-world receion have risen towards a near certainty, the emerging world as a whole is slowing rather than slumping.China still seems fairly resilient.Taken as a whole, though, growth in the world economy seems likely to slow below 3% next year—a pace that many count as receionary.So the prospects are grim enough, but a continuing credit drought would make this much worse.如果说发达经济衰退的可能性已经渐成定局，新兴经济体集体增长下滑的可能性则高于衰退。中国经济的复原能力看起来仍然非常强劲。整体而言，全球经济明年的增速极有可能下滑到3%以下，普遍将这一速度视为经济进入衰退期。因此，前景可谓十分严峻，但信贷市场持续干涸可能将情况变得糟糕得多。
Leons old and new 新旧教训
The leon of history is that early, decisive government action can stem the pain and cost of banking crises.In the 1990s Sweden moved to recapitalise its banks quickly and recovered quickly; in Japan, where regulators failed to tackle toxic debt, the slump lasted for most of the decade.The twist is that this credit crisis is deeper (it affects many more types of markets) and broader (many more countries).Any solution has to be both more systemic and more global than before.One country trying to mend one part of its banking system will not work.历史的教训是，政府及早、决断采取措施能够减轻危机造成的痛苦和付出的代价。20世纪90年代，瑞典政府快速地向银行注资，其恢复的速度也很快；而在日本，执政者未能处理坏死债务，经济陷入长达近10年的衰退。与以往不同的是，这次信贷危机更严重（影响到各类市场），范围更广（波及到更多国家）。任何解决办法都必须比以往更系统化、更全球化。单一国家试图修正其银行系统某一方面的问题是徒劳的。
The idea of a comprehensive solution sounds simple, if expensive.But politicians have found it hard to grasp.Europeans have remained stubbornly wedded to the notion that the me was “Made in America”; John McCain and Barack Obama talk as if it was all down to the greed of modern bankers.But financial excees existed centuries before a brick had been laid on Wall Street.As our special report this week lays out, today’s bust—and the bubble that preceded it—had several causes besides dodgy lending, including a tide of cheap money from emerging economies, outdated regulation, government distortions and poor supervision.Many of these failures were as evident outside America as within it.全面的解决之道听起来很简单，虽然代价昂贵。但政要们未能领会这一点。欧洲各国始终顽固地执着于这场麻烦是“美国制造”的理念。约翰?麦凯恩和巴拉克?奥巴马则将一切都归咎于现代银行家的贪婪。然而，早在建造华尔街数个世纪之前，金融过剩的问题就存在了。我们在本周的特别报道里指出，造成今天的失败和此前的泡沫的原因不仅只有高风险地借贷，还包括来自新兴经济体的廉价资本潮，过时的规则，体制扭曲和监管不力。这些失误在美国和其他地方都很明显。
With a flawed diagnosis of the causes of the crisis, it is hardly surprising that many policymakers have failed to understand its progreion.Today’s failure of confidence is based on three related iues: the solvency of banks, their ability to fund themselves in illiquid markets and the health of the real economy.The bursting of the housing bubble has led to hefty credit loes: most Western financial institutions are short of capital and some are insolvent.But liquidity is a more urgent problem.America’s decision last month to let Lehman Brothers fail—and the loes that implied to money-market funds that held its debt—prompted a global run on wholesale credit markets.It has become hard for banks, even healthy ones, to find finance; large companies with healthy cash flows have also been cut off from all but the shortest-term financing.That has increased worries about the real economy, which itself adds to the worries about banks’ solvency.
鉴于对这场危机症结的诊断有误，许多决策者未能把握其进展也就不足为奇了。今天的信心崩溃建立在三个相互关联的问题上：银行的偿付能力，银行在流动性冻结的市场上融资的能力，实体经济是否健康。房地产市场泡沫的破裂造成严重的信贷损失：大多数西方国家金融机构资金短缺，部分已经破产。但流动性的问题更急迫。美国上个月让雷曼兄弟破产加速了全球大规模信贷市场的流动性问题，其破产造成的损失牵连到持有其债券的货币市场基金。银行融资难度越来越大，即使是健康的银行。现金流良好的大型企业也得不到贷款，只能获得最短期的融资。对实体经济的担忧由此增加，反过来又进一步增加了对银行偿付能力的担忧。
This analysis suggests that governments must attack all three concerns at once.The priority, in terms of stemming the panic, is to unblock clogged credit markets.In most cases that means using central banks as an alternative source of short-term cash.This week the Fed took another step in that direction: by buying commercial paper, it is now in effect lending direct to companies.The British approach is equally bold.Alongside the Bank of England’s provision of short-term cash, the Treasury says it will sell guarantees for as much as ￡250 billion ($430 billion) of new short-term and medium-term debts iued by the banks.That is risky: if left for any length of time, those pledges give banks an incentive to behave recklely.But a temporary guarantee system offers the best chance of stemming the panic, and if it were internationally co-ordinated it would be both more credible and le risky than a collection of disparate national promises.基于上述分析，政府应该立刻对这三个问题全面出击。首先，在阻止恐慌方面，是为堵塞的信贷市场清除障碍。在大多数情况下，这意味着将中央银行作为一个能够 提供短期资金的来源。本周美联储朝着这个方向又迈进了一步：通过购买商业票据，美联储现在可以直接向企业提供有效的贷款。英国的举措也是同样大胆。除英格兰银行（英国央行）提供短期资金外，财政部还表示将为银行发行的新短期和中期债券提供2500亿英镑（4300亿美元）的担保。这种做法存在风险：如果没有限定期限，这些保证会给银行不顾风险地经营提供动机（道德风险）。但暂时的担保系统是阻止恐慌的最佳选择，如果是全球一致行动，则比大量国家各自的承诺更加可靠、风险更低。
The second prong of a crisis-resolution strategy must aim to boost banks’ capital.A new IMF report suggests Western banks need some $675 billion of new equity to prevent banks from rapidly reducing the number of loans on their books and hurting the real economy.Although there is plenty of private capital sloshing around, there is a chicken-and-egg problem: nobody wants to buy equity in an industry without enough capital.It is becoming abundantly clear that government funds—or at least government intervention—will be neceary to catalyse the rebuilding of banks’ balance sheets.Initially, America focused more on buying tainted aets from banks; now it seems keener on the “European” approach of injecting capital into their banks.Some degree of divergence is inevitable, but more co-ordination is needed.解决危机战略的第二击是增加银行资本金。IMF的一份最新报告指出，西方国家银行需要大约6750亿美元的新增资本，以阻止其账面上贷款数量快速减少，避免损害到实体经济。尽管还有大量的私人资本四处流窜，但这是一个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题：没有人愿意在一个缺乏足够资本的行业里购买股权。很显然，政府必须注资——或至少是政府干预，加速重建银行的资产负债表。最初，美国更多地集中在从银行购买问题资产，现在更青睐“欧洲”作法——向银行注入资本。一些分歧不可避免，但还需要更多的协调。
Third, policymakers should act together to cushion the economic fallout.Now that commodity prices have plunged, the inflation risk has dramatically receded acro the rich world.With aet prices plummeting and economies shrinking, deflation will soon be a bigger worry.The interest-rate cuts are an important start.Ideally, policymakers would not use only monetary policy.For instance, China could do a lot to help the rest of the world economy (and itself) by loosening fiscal policy and allowing its currency to appreciate more quickly.第三，决策者应该联合行动帮助经济软着陆。如今，大宗商品价格跳水，通货膨胀的风险已经戏剧化地从发达国家消退了。随着资产价格垂直下落和经济收缩，通缩将很快成为更大的担忧。各国纷纷降息是一个重要的开端。理想状态下，决策者不应该仅仅使用货币政策。举例而言，中国可以通过放松财政政策和加速人民币升值来帮助其他国家经济（和中国自身）。
A long wait 长久等待
Even in the best of circumstances, the consequences of the biggest aet and credit bubble in history will linger.But if the panic is stemmed, it could be a manageable problem, cushioned by the economic strength in the emerging world.Efforts at international economic co-operation have a patchy record.In the 1980s the Plaza and Louvre accords, designed respectively to push the dollar down and to prop it up, met with mixed succe.Today’s problems are deeper and more countries are involved.But the stakes are also much higher.即使在最佳的环境里，史上最大的资产和信贷泡沫破灭的后续效应也将延续很久。但是，如果恐慌能够消除，在新兴市场经济力量的缓冲下，这场危机会是一个容易解决的问题。国际间经济协作的成就有着一页斑驳的记录。在20世纪80年代，广场协议和卢浮宫协议的制定分别促成美元贬值和升值，取得了相互混杂的成功。 今天的问题更加严重，牵涉的国家更多。但赌注也高得多。
（十）
The mortgage-rescue plan 抵押贷款救援计划 Will the bail-out work? 救援计划会奏效吗？
Oct 3rd 2008 | NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC From Economist.com
The bail-out becomes law after the House reverses its rejection.Money markets call for urgent attention 救援计划在众议院由否决变为通过后成了法案。货币市场亟需重点关切
“CRISES have the power to unite us in strange ways.” So said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, in an article on Friday morning that pleaded for paage of the $700 billion bail-out plan.United they were.The House voted by a huge 263-171 margin for the bail-out, a dramatic reversal of the 228-205 rejection on Monday.On Friday October 3rd 172 Democrats backed the bill, up from 140; 91 Republicans did so, up from 65.As the Senate had already approved the bill, it was immediately signed by George Bush.“金融危机使我们以一种陌生的方式团结到一起。”美国众议院多数党（民主党）领袖Steny Hoyer在周五早上一篇请求国会通过7000亿救援方案的文章里如是说。他们确实团结到了一起。众议院以263对171的大规模票数差距通过了救援计划，这与周一的228对205否决形成了鲜明的对比。在周五（10月3日）的投票中，172位民主党议员赞成，比周一上升了32人；91位共和党人赞成，比周一上升了26人。因为参议院已经批准了此项议案，所以很快就会被布什签署（使之生效）。
The rejection on Monday was caused by conservative Republicans who said it was socialism, by Liberal Democrats who said it did not do enough for poor people, and fears by many that voters would fire them for bailing out Wall Street.The rejection triggered a plunge in stocks and a scramble to sweeten the bill.In the end numerous, mostly unrelated, items have been grafted on, from higher federal deposit-insurance limits to a tax exemption for wooden children’s arrows.The tide was turned because of that, nausea over market turmoil, news that non-farm employment sank by 159,000 in September (the steepest in five years) and because of furious busine lobbying.周一众议院的否决主要是由于两方面的原因，一是共和党保守派人士认为这是社会主义行为；二是民主党自由派人士认为此项方案对穷人帮助不足，并担心选民因为其拯救华尔街而抛弃他们。周一的否决引发了股市的暴跌并促使政府迅速修改美化此项法案。最终，许多不相关的条款被加入其中，从更高的联邦储户保险限制到儿童玩具工厂的免税措施。投票形势之所以改变，是因为众议员不堪市场混乱，非农劳动人口就业数九月下降159，000（这是五年来的最大降幅）的消息而且还有愤怒的商业团体游说的因素。
Now the real test comes: will it help? The Treasury is expected to take a week to set up the auctions for the first mortgage purchases, and the first purchases could therefore take place within weeks.Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, could act sooner: he has the authority to buy mortgages from individual institutions or inject capital into them if they are nearing failure.现在，真正的考验到来了：这个法案是否会奏效呢？财政部计划用一周的时间来准备安排第一笔购买抵押贷款资产的拍卖会，因此第一笔购买交易会在几周内完成。财长保尔森很快就会行动：他有权从私人机构购买抵押贷款资产或是给濒临倒闭的机构注资。
Speed is of the eence.Banks are loth to lend to each other, except at record punitive rates and for the shortest of periods.Most want their money back within a day.Maive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have done little to unclog the pipes.速度是极其重要的。银行间极其不愿意互相拆借，除非对方能够承受一个破纪录的惩罚性的利率以及最短的期限。许多银行希望他们借出的钱能够在一天内归还。美联储及其它央行的大规模流动性资金注入并未使市场流动性不足的情况改善多少。
Worse, the availability of short-term loans to companies is shrinking at an alarming rate.The market for commercial paper has shrunk by around $600 billion since last summer, with almost $100 billion of the reduction coming in the past week alone.This hurts companies large and small.General Electric has had to raise new capital partly because of funding concerns.Retailers report problems financing purchases of holiday-season inventories.The head of AutoNation, a car dealer, told CNBC that “banks were looking for every excuse to say no…We’ve gone from a credit crunch to a credit panic.” Firms say that some banks are trying to invoke “market disruption” clauses to cut credit lines or raise the fees for renewing them, leaving corporate treasurers unsure how long they can pay employees or buy raw materials.更糟的是，公司可使用的短期贷款正在以惊人的速度下降。商业票据市场自去年六月以来萎缩了约6000亿美元，而仅在过去的一周里就减少了1000亿美元。这对大大小小的公司都有伤害。通用电器不得不筹集新的资金，部分原因就是由于对融资的忧虑。零售商也报出其在购买假日季节物品的融资上也有问题。汽车销售商AutoNation的老板告诉CNBC：”银行在寻找各种理由对你的贷款申请说‘不’„我们已经从信贷紧缩到信贷恐慌了。”银行在竭力引用”市场混乱 “的条款来减小信贷或是提高费率以使其恢复元气，但是这使得企业财务主管不能确定他们多久才能给雇员发工资或是多久才能去购买原材料。
The pain is reaching municipalities and states.Alabama’s Jefferson County is on the verge of bankruptcy.California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has reportedly given warning, in a letter to the Treasury, that his state is running out of cash to fund day-to-day operations and may need an emergency loan of $7 billion from the federal government.这些状况已经波及各个州和自治市。阿拉巴马州的杰弗逊郡已经濒临破产。加州州长施瓦辛格据说已在一封给财政部长的信中发出警告：他的州维持日常运行的现金即将耗尽，需要从联邦政府紧急贷款70亿美元。
While the Troubled Aet Relief Programme, or TARP, may ultimately unfreeze the mortgage market, restore confidence to banks and restart lending, that may take too long for a far more preing problem, the blockage in the money markets.Tellingly, the yield on short-term government debt-the most popular destination for investors seeking safety-barely budged after the vote.Bank-to-bank loan spreads fell only slightly.American stockmarkets gave up gains built up in the hours before the vote.问题资产救援计划（TARP）可能最终会解困抵押市场，重塑银行信心并重新开始放贷，但是还需要很长时间来解决一个迫在眉睫的问题：货币市场的堵塞。非常说明问题的是，短期政府债券（投资者寻求安全的最流行的目的地）的收益在众议院表决后变化不大。银行间拆借利差只有略微下跌。美国股市最终将投票前数小时的积累的涨幅完全跌尽。
While the TARP may lift confidence, the timing and extent to which it boosts their capital will depend on the prices paid, which remain unclear.Moreover, the target is moving.Even if house prices stabilise soon, non-mortgage credit will go on deteriorating as the economy shrinks.Bank regulators will have their work cut out as failures mount among small and medium-sized lenders.More will seek sanctuary in the arms of stronger rivals.On Friday Wachovia threw itself at Wells Fargo, only four days after Citigroup had agreed to buy its banking operations in a government-backed deal.Citi threatened to sue.在TARP可能提升信心的同时，它购买资本的时机和范围程度依赖于支付的价格，而这价格尚未明朗。此外，目标也在转移。即使房价很快企稳，非抵押信贷会随着经济下滑而继续恶化。随着倒闭风潮开始在小型和中型的银行（借贷机构）中蔓延，银行监管者将会停止他们的工作。许多这样的中小银行会投身于大型银行以寻求庇护。在政府的撮合下，花旗集团答应购买美联银行的银行业务部门四天后，美联银行将其卖给富国银行。花旗威胁将会提出诉讼。
The crisis is intensifying in Europe, where governments have been forced to prop up several banks in the past week.European leaders are due to meet this weekend to discu forging a more co-ordinated response, poibly including a continent-wide bank-rescue fund.And doubts about solvency are spreading beyond banks.After a sharp drop this week in the share prices of large American insurers, such as MetLife and Prudential, they came under preure to raise fresh capital as a bulwark against the storm.欧洲的情况更糟。欧洲各国银行在上周被迫注资支持几家银行。欧洲几国领袖预定将在本周末会面商讨出台更加协调合作的应对措施，可能包括一个整个大陆范围的银行拯救基金。而对偿付能力的疑虑已经超出银行范畴，在其它金融机构也蔓延开来。在本周股价急剧下挫后，几家大型美国保险商，例如MetLife 和 Prudential迫于压力不得不募集新的资本作为防护堡垒来抵御风暴的袭击。
Until the TARP shows results, the preure remains on the Federal Reserve to contain the crisis.Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman and the main driver behind the TARP’s creation, congratulated Congre for demonstrating the “government’s commitment to do what it takes to support and strengthen our economy”.His language was remarkably similar to what he used, as an academic, to describe Franklin D.Roosevelt’s attack on the Great Depreion.Mr Bernanke made it clear that he included the Fed in that commitment: “We will continue to use all of the powers at our disposal to mitigate credit market disruptions and to foster a strong, vibrant economy.” The Fed has already expanded its balance sheet by around $600 billion since August, an amount not much smaller than the entire TARP, as it replaces evaporating private credit with central bank credit.The odds are high it will also cut its short-term interest rate, now 2%, to 1.5% either at or before its policy meeting at the end of October.在TARP有效果前，美联储控制危机的压力依然非常大。作为TARP出台的主要推动者，美联储主席伯南克祝贺国会，因为这显示了”政府为此所付出的正是支持和加强我们的经济。”伯南克的这番言语颇似他以前作为学者时，形容富兰克林D.罗斯福总统抵御大萧条举措的论调。伯南克明确的是，他将美联储也置身这个”付出”之中：”我们会继续自行使用我们所有的权力来减缓信贷市场的瓦解，并培育出一个强壮的，充满活力的经济体。”自八月以来，美联储已将其资产负债表扩大了6000亿美元（这是一个比整个TARP计划小不了多少的数目），这将会用中央银行信贷来代替消失的私人信贷。美联储在十月底的政策会上或之前，下调短期利率（从现在的2％调至1.5％）的可能性很高。
（十一）
Financial crisis 金融危机
Into the land of the unknown 前途未卜
Sep 30th 2008 | LONDON, NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC From Economist.com
Global market turmoil continues after the rejection of the mortgage-rescue plan in America 美国救市计划遭拒后全球市场继续混乱
Reuters HOW many votes in Congre will the latest financial upheaval change? That is the calculus underway in Washington, DC, after the House of Representatives defeated the proposed $700 billion mortgage-rescue plan by 228 to 205 on Monday September 29th.Democrats backed it by 140 votes to 95, while Republicans opposed it by 133 to 65.
最近的金融巨变将改变多少国会的选票?这是继9月29日周一众议院以228票反对：205票支持挫败7000亿美元救市计划之后，华盛顿正在进行的计算。对此项救市计划，民主党140票支持：95票反对，而共和党则是133票反对：65票支持。
Bankers had been under no illusions that the tweaked Paulson plan would cure all the financial system’s ills.But most had seen it as a step in the right direction, and had expected it to pa.Its rejection sent stockmarkets into freefall.The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 7%, and suffered its biggest-ever points lo.Perhaps fittingly in an economy that is in danger of sliding into depreion, the only stock among the 500 in the S&P index that finished higher was Campbell’s Soup.The S&P closed 29% below its peak.Reflecting fears that consumer demand will wilt, shares of Apple Computer, creator of the iPhone, fell by 18%.The rout continued in Asia and Europe on Tuesday morning.
银行家们对妥协后的鲍尔森的救市计划会治愈金融系统的疾患不抱幻想。但是他们中的大多数认为该救市计划是往正确的方向前进，并希望它能够得以通过。救市计划遭拒引起股市重挫。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌7%，创历史最大点数跌幅。或许，对一个有着滑向萧条之危险的经济体来说，标准普尔500指数股票里收盘唯一上涨的一只股票是 美国汤品生产商金宝汤（Campbell’s Soup）就是再平常不过的事情了。标准普尔500指数比其历史峰值跌29%收盘。iPhone开发者苹果公司的股票下跌18%,反映出市场对消费者需求 将会萎缩的恐慌。美国股市收盘后,亚洲股市还在下挫，欧洲股市的下挫则延续到周二早晨。
Worse, credit markets, already dysfunctional, were brought close to breaking point.Banks grew even le willing to lend to each other on Monday, and money-market funds fled anything with a whiff of risk.Some corporations are struggling to roll-over commercial paper, short-term debt iued to finance working capital, payroll payments and the like.In an effort to keep money markets from drying up, the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of a vital lending facility for banks, to $300 billion, and expanded agreements with other central banks that funnel dollars to lenders abroad.
更糟的是，已经运转不良的信贷市场濒临崩溃。周一，银行更为不愿互相拆借，一有风 吹草动，货币基金就出逃任何投资项目。一些公司苦苦挣扎于结转商业票据，发行短期债券来筹措流动资金，支付工资和其他费用。在维持货币市场流动性的努力 中，美联储把一项对银行的关键贷款供应规模翻番，达到3000亿美元，并且延伸了与其他央行关于它们为在海外经营的美国的银行注资的协议。
These unprecedented injections are aimed at easing concerns that weak participants in the interbank market will fail to honour their debts.But many banks are now aumed to be not only illiquid but insolvent.Last week Washington Mutual, a thrift saddled with rotten mortgages, became the largest-ever American lender to fail.And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the aets of Wachovia, an even bigger American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators.The pain has suddenly grown much more intense in Europe, too.
这些空前的注资举措目的在于缓解忧虑，这种忧虑是：孱弱的参与者在同业拆借市场上 无能力偿还其所欠债务。但是现在许多银行被认为不仅仅是流动性差，而且是无偿付能力。上周，不堪承受大量不良抵押的一家储蓄银行——华盛顿互惠银行 （Washington Mutual）破产，成为美国有史以来最大的倒闭银行。周一花旗集团同意购买大部分美联（Wachovia）资产，美联是一家比华盛顿互惠银行规模更大的 银行，此项交易由监管方撮合。金融危机的痛楚在欧洲也急剧增强。
The no vote was a big blow to George Bush, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman.They gave dire warnings of the consequences of an unchecked crisis, in hopes of persuading Congre to approve an unusually aggreive and early fiscal intervention.(It took many more years for a systemic response to widespread failures of American savings and loan banks in the 1980s).But because the intervention is relatively early, voters have yet to see much impact from the crisis on their lives.“On Monday morning…the sun came up and a lot of people went to work, and [they] couldn’t understand what this panic was in Washington,” Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told Mr Paulson last week.It was far easier for voters to relate to $700 billion of their taxes being spent on a me in Wall Street.
对乔治?布什，财长汉克?保尔森，联储出席本?伯南克而言，否决票是一大打击。他 们曾对不遏制危机的后果给出警告，寄希望于说服国会通过此项非比一般地积极地也是早期地财政干预。（上世纪80年代，对美国储蓄和贷款银行普遍破产的一个 系统化处理耗费了许多年）。但是因为此次干预相对要早，选民们没有意识到这场危机对他们的生活的重大影响。宾夕法尼亚州民主党人保罗·坎乔斯基（Paul Kanjorski）上周对保尔森说道：“周一清晨“““太阳升起，人们赶去上班，他们无法理解华盛顿在恐慌什么。”对选民们来说，认同这7000亿美元——他们纳的税被浪费在华尔街的废物上倒是更为轻而易举的事情。
Party leaders largely agreed with the diagnosis, as did the presidential candidates of both parties.But polls showed that voters were split; constituent phone calls and e-mails ran heavily against the bill.Administration officials and party leaders are back at work trying to find a way to get at least 12 members to switch their vote; the betting both on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, is they will succeed.(Paage in the Senate is considered le problematic.) But it should not be taken for granted.Without amendments, anyone who changes his vote will face fierce criticism when he seeks re-election.Any amendments to appease Republicans could cost Democratic support, and vice-versa.
政党领袖们很大程度上同意对此次金融危机的诊断，连两党的总统候选人也赞同。但是民调显示了选民立场的分裂：反对救市方案的游说电话和邮件纷沓至来。执政官员和政党领袖重新回到此项工作上来，试图使至少12个反对成员改弦易辙；华盛顿和华尔街都预计他们能够办到。（在参议院通过问题不大）但这不应当被看作是他们就欣然接受。倘若对该方案未加修订，任何人改变自己原先立场都会在其再次面临选举时（寻求连任时）受到严苛的批评。另一方面，任何迎合共和党的修订都会损耗民主党的支持，反之亦然。 “You can’t let one day’s trading dictate public policymaking,” argues Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican and member of the Republican Study Committee, a block of conservative members who led opposition to the bill.“The market’s going to be a factor, but we’re looking at the larger picture.” Recalcitrant Republicans would rather see a programme to sell insurance to banks against mortgage defaults, rather than buying aets from them.The Treasury strongly opposes this approach.But there may be other grounds for compromise, such as relaxing mark-to-market accounting or extending the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s guarantee of a bank’s liabilities to more than just the first $100,000 of each customer’s deposits.Other proposals include giving banks more time to deduct mortgage-related operating loes from future taxable profits, letting companies repatriate foreign profits tax-free and improving the tax treatment of loes sustained by banks on their holdings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock.
“你不能让单日交易量来指示公共政策制定,” 科特?盖瑞特（Scott Garrett）主张，他是新泽西州共和党人，也是共和党研究委员会的成员，这个委员会由一批领导反对此项救市方案的保守人士组成。“市场将是一个主要问 题，但是我们着眼于全局。”执拗的共和党人宁愿看到一个对银行出售保险以抵御抵押违约损失的计划，也不愿意从银行手里收购资产。财政部强烈反对这种方法。 但是或许有其他妥协的余地，比如放松按市价调整的会计或者提高美国联邦存款保险公司对银行债务的担保，突破原先的每个客户存款担保10万美元的上限。其他建议包括给银行更长的时间从未来的应税收入中扣除目前抵押贷款业务的相关损失；让公司得以免税把在国外所得利润存回美国；并且改善在持有房地美和房利美的股票方面，银行所蒙受的损失的税收待遇。
For their part, more Democrats might back the proposal if the administration also agreed to more fiscal stimulus, in particular public-works spending, or taking any profits on the TARP to low-income housing.A deal may be poible, but time is short: legislators are itching to return to their districts to campaign, and investors’ appetite for risk is ebbing fast.The House is not expected to reconvene before Thursday, to accommodate the Jewish new year.
从民主党这边来看，如果执政当局还同意更多的财政刺激，特别是公共项目开销或是从 问题资产救援计划（TARP）中提取任何利润给低收入住房的话，或许会有更多民主党成员支持这项救市提议。协议达成或许可能，但时间紧迫：立法者（议员 们）急于返回其选区参加竞选，同时投资者的风险胃口迅速萎缩。周二之前众议院不可能重新召集议事，因为这期间包括了犹太新年日。（译者注：很多议员要赶回 去过节）
The House vote also represented a stinging rejection of John McCain, the Republican nominee.Mr McCain suspended his campaign last week for two days, citing the financial crisis, and flew to Washington, DC, to help craft a solution to it.His main task was to persuade reluctant House Republicans to back their own president.In the event they voted against the deal made by their own leadership by two to one.The humiliation meted out to Mr McCain is intense.
众议院的选票也代表了一种对共和党候选人约翰?麦凯恩的无情拒绝。麦凯恩先生上周 称是为金融危机而暂停了两天的竞选，并且亲自飞往华盛顿，来帮助达成一个针对救市计划的解决方案。他的主要任务是说服执拗的共和党人来支持他们共和党自己 的总统。结果，他们以2比1投票反对他们自己的领导阶层制定的计划。麦凯恩先生蒙受的羞辱是相当强烈的。
Amid the efforts to put the deal back together, some small hope remains that not all is lost.What is unlikely to help is the atmosphere of bitterne and recrimination that is pervading Capitol Hill.With some justification, the Democrats are aggrieved to find that they supported Mr Bush’s bill while his own party did not.But the Republicans blame the Democratic speaker, Nancy Pelosi, for making a stupidly partisan speech shortly before the vote in which she poured scorn on the Republicans she is trying to court.A lot of bridges will have to be built in a short span of time.
使这项救市方案达成还存一线希望。讥讽的氛围和遍布国会的互相指责是于是无补的。情有可原，民主党会愤愤不平，因为他们发现自己支持布什的救市方案而布什自己的共和党却反对。但是共和党人谴责身为民主党的众议院议长南希-佩罗西，指责她在投票开始前几分钟发表了一个愚蠢的从党派立场出发的讲话，在讲话中她讥讽她要试图拉拢说服的共和党人。短时间内，各方间必须要建立大量沟通。
（十二）
I want your money 我要用的就是你的钱 Sep 25th 2008 From The Economist print edition
No government bail-out of the banking system was ever going to be pretty.This one deserves support 政府对银行系统的救助永远不可能完美，但当下的这个理应得到支持。
SAVING the world is a thankle task.The only thing beyond dispute in the $700 billion plan of Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, to stem the financial crisis is that everyone can find something in it to dislike.The left accuses it of ripping off taxpayers to save Wall Street, the right damns it as socialism; economists disparage its technicalities, political scientists its sweeping powers.The administration gave ground to Congre, George Bush delivered a televised appeal and Barack Obama and John McCain suspended the presidential campaign.Even so, as The Economist went to pre, the differences remained.There was a chance that Congre would say no.拯救世界是一个费力不讨好的任务。财长鲍尔森和联储主席伯南克为了阻止金融危机而主张了7000亿美元救助计划，其中只有一点是毋庸置疑的：每个人都能从该计划中挑出些毛病来（不可能让每个人都满意—）。左翼势力控诉该计划无异于抢劫纳税人的钱财去救助华尔街，右翼势力谴责该计划为社会主义运动；经济学家鄙视计划的学术性，政治科学家崇拜它横扫一切的强大威力。执政当局向国会进行了妥协：布什发出了电视呼吁，奥巴马和麦凯恩也暂停了竞选大战。即使如此，经济学人杂志在付印时分歧仍在（还是保留了异见）。国会曾经是有机会拒绝该计划的。
Spending a sum of money that could buy you a war in Iraq should not come easily; and the notion of any bail-out is deeply troubling to any self-respecting capitalist.Against that stand two overriding arguments.First this is a plan that could work (see article).And, second, the potential costs of producing nothing, or too little too slowly, include a financial collapse and a deep receion spilling acro the world: those far outweigh any plausible estimate of the bail-out’s cost.
花掉相当于伊战军费规模的一大笔银子不应该如此轻松，况且救助的理念令任何一个有自尊心的资本家都感到非常不安。但针对上述论调有两大主要反对观点：第 一，这是一个可能行之有效的方案；第二，那些毫无效果或者收效甚微的潜在支出已经大大超过了救援计划合理的成本预测，上述支出包括蔓延全球的金融崩溃和经 济萎缩所招致的损失。
Mr Market goes to Congre 让国会来判决市场
America’s financial system has two ailments: it owns a huge amount of toxic securities linked to falling house prices.And it is burdened by loes that leave it short of capital (although the world has capital, not enough has been available to the banks).For over a year, since August 2007, central bankers, principally Mr Bernanke, have been trying to make this toxic debt liquid.But by September 17th, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the nationalisation of American International Group earlier that week, the problem started to become one of the system’s solvency too.The market lost faith in a strategy that saved finance one institution at a time.The economy is not healing itself.If credit markets stay blocked, consumers and firms will enter a vicious spiral.美国金融体系微恙有二：过量持有与狂跌房价相关的有毒债券；损失的负担致使体系内呈现出资本短缺（尽管全球拥有很多资本，但是银行可用部分确严重不足）。 自2007年8月以来的一年时间里，以伯南克为主要代表的央行一直致力于有毒债务的清偿。但截止到9月17日，紧随雷曼兄弟的破产和美国国际集团的国有 化，该难题发展成了金融体系清偿能力的麻烦之一。市场对于采取逐个机构救助的方法来挽救金融体系的策略已经失去了信心，美国经济不可能实现自救。如果信贷 市场依然一片僵局，消费者和公司必将卷入更为凶残的漩涡。
Mr Paulson’s plan relies on buying vast amounts of toxic securities.The theory is that in any auction a huge buyer like the federal government would end up paying more than today’s prices, temporarily depreed by the scarcity of buyers, and still buy the loans cheaply enough to reflect the high chance of a default.That would help recapitalise some banks—which could also set le capital aside against a cleaner balance sheet.And by creating credible, transparent prices, it would at last encourage investors to come in and repair the financial system: this week Warren Buffett and Japan’s Mitsubishi-UFJ agreed to buy stakes in Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.Some banks would still not have enough capital, but under Mr Paulson’s original plan, the state could put equity in them, or, if they become insolvent, take them over and run them down.鲍尔森先生的计划依赖于大量购买有毒债券，其理论依据在于：在任何竞价中，买家数量匮乏会造成价格的暂时性压低，虽然像联邦政府这样的大买家所付出的成交 价格很可能高于现值，但仍然会以易于形成违约的便宜价格购买贷款。此举不仅可以调整一些银行的资本，还可以减少为了调整资产负债比例而搁置的资本。建立可 靠透明的价格将会最终鼓励投资者们重新进入市场并且修复金融体系：本周巴菲特和日本三菱UFJ银行同意购买高盛和摩根斯坦利的股份。一些银行还处于资本不足的状态，但是根据鲍尔森计划的原意，国家可以向银行注资，如果他们出现了清偿问题，政府可以接管银行并阻止其继续恶化。
The economics behind this is sound.Government support to the banking system can break the cycle of panic and peimism that threatens to suck the economy into deep receion.Intervention may help taxpayers, because they are also employees and consumers.Although $700 billion is a lot—about 6% of GDP—some of it will be earned back and it is small compared with the 16% of GDP that banking crises typically swallow and trivial compared with the Depreion, when unemployment surged above 20% (compared with 6% now).Mers Bernanke and Paulson also have done well by acting quickly: it took seven years for Japan’s regulators to set up a mechanism to take over large broke banks in the 1990s.
支撑该计划的经济形势健康度还算好，政府对于银行系统的支持可以打破人们对经济深陷衰退所产生的恐慌和悲观的恶性循环。政府干预也许会帮到纳税人，因为他 们本身也是雇员和消费者。尽管7000亿美元是一个不小的数目，几乎相当于GDP的6%，但是其中的部分时可以被拿回的，并且与银行危机所吞噬掉的GDP 的16%比较而言就小了很多；如果与上世纪的大萧条相比就更是微不足道了，那时候的失业率飚升到20%，而现在只有6%。鲍尔森和伯南克也做到了该出手时 就出手：日本的立法者在90年代时用了7年时间才建立了接管破产银行的机制。
Could the plan be better structured? Some economists want the state to focus on putting equity into the banks—arguing that it is the best way to addre their lack of solvency.In theory you would need to spend le, because a dollar of new equity would support $10 in aets.Yet the banks might not take part until they were on the ropes and, if house prices later fell dramatically more, the value of the banks’ shares would collapse.The threat of the government taking stakes would scare off some private investors.And in the charged atmosphere after this bail-out meddling politicians, as part-owners, would have a tempting lever over the banks.这个计划得架构是否可以更优化呢？一些经济学家希望政府可以向银行注入更多的资本，因为他们认为这是清偿能力缺乏的最佳解决之道。理论上而言应该减少消 费，因为注资1美元可以支撑10美元的资产。然而银行存在着不撞南墙不回头的心理，那么如果房价随后会更夸张地下跌，银行股票将会彻底崩溃。政府介入行为 所引发的恐慌也许会吓跑部分私人投资者。政客们的干预计划造成了非常紧张的气氛，所以股东们有躲避银行的倾向。
Mr Paulson’s plan also has its shortcomings.He will find it hard to stop sellers from rigging auctions, if only because no two lots of dodgy securities are exactly the same.Taxpayers may thus pay over the odds and banks may be rewarded for their stupidity.Yet these costs seem small against the benefit of putting a floor under the markets.And fine calculations about moral hazard are le preing when investors are fleeing risk.鲍尔森先生的计划也有弱点：该计划很难阻止卖方的提价行为，除非有两个完全一样的dodgy securities(这个我没有查到)。纳税人会因为不对等的条件而要支付更多成本，而银行会从他们的愚蠢举动中获利。投资者在规避风险的时候，道德风 险的精准计算就不那么重要了。
If the economics of Mr Paulson’s plan are broadly correct, the politics are fiendish.You are lavishing money on the people who got you into this me.Sensible intervention cannot even buy long-term relief: the plan cannot stop house prices falling and the bloated financial sector shrinking.Although the economic risk is that the plan fails, the political risk is that the plan succeeds.Voters will scarcely notice a depreion that never happened.But even as they lose their houses and their jobs, they will see Wall Street once again making millions.如果鲍尔森先生计划的经济效果还勉强的话，那么其政治效果就应该算是极差了；因为钱已经挥霍到把你带入混乱的人的身上了。如此理性的干预甚至都不能换来长 期的缓解：该计划不能阻止房价的下跌和过度膨胀金融业的缩水，经济风险在于计划的失败，而政治风险在于计划的成功。选民们不会注意到一个永远不可能发生的 经济衰退，尽管目前失去了房屋和工作，但他们还将看到华尔街的东山再起。
Buckle a little, but do it briefly 政策紧缩一些，而且要快
In retrospect, Mr Paulson made his job harder by misreading the politics.His original plan contained no help for homeowners.And he aumed sweeping powers to spend the cash quickly.He was right to want flexibility to buy a range of aets.But flexibility does not exclude accountability.As complaints mounted, Mr Paulson and Mr Bernanke buckled—agreeing, for instance, to more oversight.Now that Mers McCain and Obama have returned to Congre to forge a deal, more buckling may be neceary.Ideally, conceions should not outlast the crisis: temporary help for people able to stay in their houses, a brief ban on dividends in financial firms, even another fiscal package.They should not be permanent or so onerous that the programme fails for want of participants—which is why proposed limits on pay are a mistake (see article).回顾过往，鲍尔森先生对政治的错误解读给自己的工作平添了不少难度。他的计划原本不包括对房屋所有者的救助，并且假想出可以迅速作出支出的强大权利。他对 于购买资产灵活性的需求是正确的，但是灵活性也不能牺牲应有的义务。鉴于抱怨的日益增多，鲍尔森和伯南克决定收紧政策：比如同意加强监管。现在麦凯恩和奥 巴马也同国会达成了进一步收紧政策的共识。在理想主义状态下，让步不会比危机延续更长的时间：暂时帮助人们保住自己的房产，暂时中断金融公司的分红以及其 他一揽子财政措施。但是这不应该是长期行为，而且也不应该太过繁琐，否则就会因为缺乏参与者而导致计划的失败；这就是限定支付额度的错误根源所在。
Mr Paulson’s plan is not perfect.But it is good enough and it is the plan on offer.The prospect of its failure sent credit markets once again veering towards the aby.Congre should pa it—and soon.鲍尔森先生的计划并不完美，但已经足够用、并且马上可以用。失败的前景会再一次让信贷市场转向深渊，所以国会应该尽快通过该方案
（十三）
Depreion index 萧条指数
The D-word “萧条”的出现频率
Oct 2nd 2008 From Economist.com
Signs of a pending depreion? The Economist’s D-word index 《经济学人》提出的萧条指数预示着经济萧条即将来临？
MANY comparisons may be made between the devastation being wrought on America’s financial system today and the Wall Street crash of 1929.One similarity that the world is desperate to avoid is a repeat of the depreion of the 1930s.Hopes are pinned on the American bail-out plan that the House of Representatives is set to reconsider on Friday October 3rd.If the fear of depreion is anything to go by, the future looks bleak.A survey of newspaper articles over the past two decades shows a sharp spike in mentions of the dreaded D-word, as commentators have started to think the worst.The prognostications may poibly turn out to be true, or perhaps the only thing we have to fear are the fears of journalists themselves.人们或许将如今美国金融系统遭遇的重创同1929年的华尔街大崩盘做了许多比较。它们有一个相似之处，那就是1930年代经济危机的重复，而这也正是世界所极力避免的。希望都寄托在美国的 救市计划上，众议院将于10月3日周五重新审核该计划。如果用对经济萧条的恐惧作为判断标准的话，前景着实堪忧。对过去20年来新闻报道文章的分析表明， 当评论员们开始对经济状况做最坏打算时，可怕的“萧条”字眼出现频率变高。而目前的萧条指数已经是过去20年来的最高值了。这个预兆可能真的会应验，但或 许记者们自身的恐惧情绪才是唯一应该让我们感到害怕的东西。
（十五）
Some more equal than others 收入平等性的差异
Oct 1st 2008 From Economist.com
Income inequality around the world 世界的收入不平等问题
NOT everyone agrees that income inequality is a problem to be solved.America and Britain are reckoned to have among the greatest inequality, among rich countries, as measured by the Gini coefficient.Such inequality may be aociated with certain problems, for example a study produced last year by Unicef, the UN children’s agency, suggested that the two countries have particularly low levels of child wellbeing.For many ordinary Americans and Britons, however, social mobility and getting opportunities to prosper may be more important.Nordic countries, which are the most equal, regularly do well in happine surveys.The highest levels of inequality are in poor countries, especially in South America and Africa.并非所有人都认为收入不平等是一个需要解决的问题。按基尼系数计算，美英两国都位于富裕国家里收入差距最大的几个国家之列。收入不平等或许总伴有某些特定问题，比如联合国儿童基金会去年发布的一份研究报告就指出，美英两国的儿童福利水平很低。不过，对许多普通美国人和英国人来说，社会流动性和获得飞黄腾达的机会或许更为重要。在社会幸福调查中，北欧国家一般表现较好，那里是世界上收入最平等的地区。收入最不平等的往往都是贫穷国家，特别是在南美和非洲地区。 （十六）
Capital bonanzas 财源滚滚
Sep 25th 2008 From The Economist print edition Does Wall Street’s meltdown show financial globalisation itself is part of the problem? 这次华尔街的灾难意味着金融全球化本身就是问题的一部分吗？
“THANK God,” said one Latin American finance minister earlier this year.“At least this time it isn’t our fault.”
“谢天谢地，”一位拉丁美洲的财政部长在今年早些时候说，”至少这次不是我们的错。”
The meltdown of America’s financial system may look very different from the emerging-market crises that overwhelmed Thailand in 1997 or Ruia in 1998.This time there has been no currency collapse, no government default.Then, there were no collateralised-debt obligations or credit-default swaps.
美国金融体系的灾难跟在1997，98年横扫泰国和俄罗斯的新兴市场危机有所不同。这次没有货币崩溃，没有政府失职。而上次却没有担保抵押债务，或者信用违约互换。
Yet the minister was justified in seeing parallels between America’s crisis and the emerging-market episodes.In all of them vast current-account deficits were financed by huge capital inflows.The afflicted countries saw housing speculation, aet bubbles and cheap loans followed by a credit crunch and the seizing up of the financial system.And Wall Street’s meltdown raises the same questions as the crises of a decade ago: what will the direct effects on emerging markets be? If the world’s richest economies are vulnerable to global financial turmoil, should developing countries not seek to insulate themselves from it?
然而上面那位财政部长将美国的金融危机和新兴市场的金融危机看作一致也是恰如其分的。所有这些国家都以大量的资本流入为经常账户赤字融资。于是这些国家便首先出现房地产投机，资产泡沫和低廉的贷款，随之而来的是信贷紧缩和金融体系的停滞。这让上述国家深受折磨、痛苦不堪。而华尔街的灾难提出了与十年前金融危机相同的问题：这场灾难将会给新兴市场带来什么直接影响？如果世界最富裕的经济体还在全球金融动荡面前还脆弱不堪，为何新兴市场不寻求与之隔绝呢？
Two recent papers* cast light on these questions.They conclude that, although financial globalisation has big costs, these can be minimised and potential gains increased by better policy.Financial globalisation itself, they imply, ought to be seen not so much as a bad thing, but as too much of a good one.
最新的两篇论文（注1）阐明了这些问题。他们的结论是，虽然金融全球化有巨大的成本，但是这些成本可以最小化而潜在的收益可以依靠政策的改善而增加。他们认为，金融全球化本身不应该看作一件坏事，而是一件好事。 Beware markets bearing gifts 当心市场带来的木马
Most emerging markets see their ability to attract foreign money as proof of good management.From this point of view, it should be a bleing that private capital flows to developing countries rose, according to the World Bank, to $1 trillion in 2007, the highest ever.Yet if the study by Carmen and Vincent Reinhart is anything to go by, this should be little cause for celebration.
绝大多数新兴市场将他们吸引外资的能力看作其良好管理的证明。基于这样的观点，根据世界银行数据，2007年流入发展中国家的资金达到有史以来最高的1万亿美元，这应该看作一件非常幸运的事了。然而如果依据Carmen和Vincent Reinhart的研究结论的话，这没什么值得庆贺的。
Taking the experience of 181 countries since 1980, the authors reckon that middle- and low-income countries had a roughly 20% chance of suffering a banking crisis and a 30% chance of a currency crisis, external-debt default or inflation spike (to more than 20% a year) if they experienced what the authors call a “capital-flow bonanza” in the three years beforehand.(They define such a bonanza as an unusual shift of the current account into the red, using that as a proxy for capital inflows since the capital and current accounts mirror each other.) These seem unenviable odds.
根据自1980年以来181个国家的经验，作者认为，如果在之前三年有作者称之为”财源滚滚涌入”（它们将财源滚滚定义为，经常账户异常变为赤字，并且以此作为资金流入的代理，因为资本和经常账户互相反应彼此）的话，中低收入国家有大约20％的可能陷入银行危机，30％的可能陷入货币危机，外债违约和通货暴涨（年度通胀率超过20％）。这显然是不值得羡慕的恩惠。
The authors point out that countries might have suffered disasters anyway, without being showered with money.That turns out to be true-but their chances were quite a bit lower: between 14% and 24% for countries that did not attract so many dollars.In other words, a foreign inflow, as well as financing good things such as public infrastructure and corporate investment, is also aociated with debt defaults, inflation and currency crises.
作者指出，上述那样的国家在没有大量资金资助下，肯定会陷入不管何种方式的灾难之中。这被证明是正确的，但是发生的概率比较低–大约只有没有获得巨额外资的国家14％到24％发生灾难的概率。换句话说，外资流入一方面会资助好的项目，例如公共基础设施和公司投资，但另一方面也会与债务违约，通货膨胀和货币危机发生关系。
The authors focus on the level of capital flows, rather than their composition.Presumably, countries that attract more foreign direct investment suffer le than those that have a greater amount of footloose portfolio investment or short-term bank lending.But overall, most countries that suck in foreign money show the claic signs of an economic bubble.Using a subset of 66 countries for which there are more detailed figures, the authors show that share prices rose by more than 10% in real terms in the two years before what they call a bonanza, then fell relentlely for four years, ending below where they started.House prices went up by more than that-15% in real terms over four years during a bonanza-before falling back.
作者更关注资金流入的数量而不是它们的构成。据估计，有大量外资直接投资的国家会比有大量自由组合投资或者短期银行贷款的国家所承受的风险要少。但是总体来说，绝大多数吸入大量外资的国家显出经济泡沫的典型特征。用66个有更多经济数据的国家作为研究对象，作者发现，在其所谓的引入”财源滚滚”之前两年，这些国家的股票按实值计算增长10％以上，但是在引入”财源滚滚”之后却会连跌四年，最后降到起始点以下。房价涨得更多，在”财源滚滚”的四年内按实际价值计算增长了15％，而之后便会回落。
So why would countries seek out foreign money at all, if its impact is so malign? The answer is that it is not so much the amount of investment that is the trouble; it is its volatility, and especially its tendency to dry up.That makes today’s climate worrying.Mansoor Dailami, the World Bank’s manager of international finance, says private inflows to emerging markets may fall from $1 trillion to only $800 billion-850 billion this year.That may be particularly troublesome because of another difference between this crisis and the Asian one: in 1997-98, more debt was sovereign.Now, much of it is corporate, taken out by Indian, Chinese and other emerging-market companies.That implies a global credit tightening could have as big an impact on emerging markets as slowing import demand in the rich world.
那么即使这么有害，为何这些国家还想积极获取外资呢？因为并不是大量投资是麻烦，而是其波动性，特别是其即将耗尽的趋势。这造成了今天忧虑的气氛。世界银行国际金融经理Mansoor Dailami说，私人资本涌入新兴市场会从1万亿美元下降到今年的8千亿到8千5百亿美元。这是非常糟糕的。因为这场金融危机与上次亚洲金融危机另一个不同之处在于，在1997到98年，更多的债务是政府所有的。而现在，这些大部分是公司所有的，会被印度，中国和其它新兴市场的公司获得。这意味着，全球信贷紧缩对新兴市场的影响与发达国家和地区进口需求放缓对新兴市场的影响一样大。
Critics of financial globalisation argue that these problems are so great that emerging markets ought to be insulating themselves through capital controls.Many have been doing so.Yet even setting aside doubts about how far this is desirable (it is hard to believe growth in India or Brazil would have reached today’s levels without foreign capital), the studies raise questions about whether capital controls are really the right response.
金融全球化的批评者认为，这些问题太大，因此新兴市场国家必须采取资本监管从而使其免遭其害。许多新兴市场国家也就是这么做的。然而即使抛开对资本监管到何种程度合适的质疑（印度和巴西如果没有外资投入的话，其增长率很难能够达到今天的水平），这两篇论文也提出了这个问题：资本监管是否是个正确的应对方法？
The second study points out that “sudden stops” of capital inflows tend to be an inverted U-shape: the poorest countries are the least vulnerable to global financial shocks; middle-income countries are the most; but, as you get richer and more integrated into global finance, your vulnerability tends to fall again-and that remains true despite the crisis in America.So it might still make sense for countries like India and Brazil to carry on liberalising.Moreover, as the Reinharts show, a big part of the problem is that capital flows are endemically boom-bust: money floods in and out.They argue that fiscal policy should be used to smooth out such cycles: governments should reduce deficits or run surpluses during bonanzas-the opposite of what they usually do.This implies something of a paradox.Capital flows are supposed to be a reward for good economic behaviour.But as Dani Rodrik, a Harvard profeor, says, “these policy conclusions turn capital inflows into an imperative for even deeper reform.”
第二篇论文指出外资流入”骤停”会对不同经济体产生”倒U”型的影响：最穷的国家最不可能遭受全球金融冲击；中等收入国家最可能遭受冲击；但是随着你更富有更进一步融入全球金融体系，那么遭受冲击的可能性又会再次下降–除了美国的金融危机外，这还是正确的。因此对于像印度和巴西这样的国家来说继续施行自由化政策还是很明智的。此外，如Reinharts所示，最大的问题在于资金流动的地方性兴衰起伏：资金大量涌入、涌出。他们认为金融政策应该缓和这样的起伏周期：政府应该在”财源滚滚”时减少赤字或者增加盈余–而这些政府的做法恰好与之相反。而这却是个悖论。资金流入应该是对一个良好运行经济体的褒奖、但是如同哈佛教授Dani Rodrik所说：”那些政策却将资金流入作为深化改革的必须。” （十七）
Questions of equity 公平问题和股权问题
Sep 25th 2008 From The Economist print edition Salary caps are a rotten idea; but the crisis also carries leons for regulators and workers 薪酬限制是个极糟糕的主意；但是这场危机也给监管者和工作者都上了一课
IT IS easy to understand why many in Congre and beyond have demanded salary caps on bank executives as a condition of approving the Bush administration’s bail-out of the financial system.After all, many of the people who will be leading the effort to get the banks back on their feet were the very same masters of the universe whose greed and myopia brought the industry to its knees in the first place.Nonethele the lawmakers’ apparent decision to impose some form of still unspecified wage limit, a demand reluctantly accepted by Hank Paulson and the Bush administration this week, is a mistake.
为何众多国会议员和广大群众都要求将银行高管的薪酬限制作为批准布什政府金融救援计划的一个条件呢？这个很好理解。毕竟，尽管是这些银行高管将要用他们的力量来帮这些银行摆脱困境，恢复原样。而正是由于这些曾是世界霸主的银行高管的贪婪和短视，首先将整个行业拖入泥淖。尽管如此，立法者这个强制限制薪酬–本周被保尔森和布什政府勉强接受–也是个错误的决定。
Just now, it is a struggle to keep a straight face when you read the words “talent” and “Wall Street” in the same sentence.And yet, precisely because it is in a me, the financial system will need decent managers if it is to return to the health that benefits the rest of the economy.The sort of sums that would satisfy Congre as a cap may be far above the incomes of average Americans, but there is no surer way of driving finance offshore or into hedge funds where it is beyond the gaze of regulators.Besides, if ever there was a time when pay in banking and broking is likely to be depreed by the market, it is now.The bubble did not only inflate aet prices, it also inflated pay.Now the bubble has burst and hundreds of thousands of finance profeionals want work.
刚才，当你在同一个句子里读到”人才”和”华尔街”这些词的时候，会努力控制自己不要笑出声来。可是，恰恰由于其正处困境，金融系统要想恢复健康进而使其余经济部分也从中获益，必须要有优秀的经理人。国会满意的薪酬上限应该比美国人平均收入要高的多，但是并不能保证那些金融资本不会转移到离岸金融公司或者对冲基金，在那里不必担心金融监管者的监视。此外，现在正是银行和经纪业由于市场疲软而薪酬低迷的时候。以前的泡沫不仅膨胀了资产的价格，同时也膨胀了薪酬。现在泡沫破裂了，成千上万的金融专业人士在寻找工作。
American politicians have a lamentable record of intervening in setting executive pay.In the early years of the Clinton administration, Congre imposed a salary cap of $1m, beyond which firms faced a tax penalty.Pay rose, as one set of executives, beneath the cap, realised that they were “underpaid” and another set gained from an outpouring of creativity, as consultants invented myriad option schemes, perks and pension benefits to get around the limit.This only made it harder for shareholders to know who was getting what.
美国政客在干预高管薪酬设定上曾经有段不愉快的历史。在克林顿政府早期，国会将高管薪酬强制定在100万美元，超过这个数字将会受到税收惩罚。于是，对于高管来说有就一套低于那个最高限制薪酬标准。薪酬提高了，一部分高管，意识到薪酬限制让他们受到”剥削”了，而另外一部分人通过创新方式，作为公司顾问发明出诸多的期权计划，补助，养老津贴等等来绕过薪酬限制。这么做的唯一结果就是让股东更难知道那些高管拿多少薪酬了。
If the foolishne of Congre setting corporate pay levels is an old leon, the financial crisis is teaching some new ones to shareholders.First, forget the received wisdom that paying people in large amounts of shares in their own firm ensures they take sensible value-maximising decisions.In the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, the management did not just take reckle gambles with other people’s money.Dick Fuld and Jimmy Cayne took reckle gambles with their own-and still they failed to do the right things and ended up losing most of their fortunes.Outside shareholders should remember that loading up the people at the top with shares can be an aid to corporate governance, but not a substitute for it.
如果国会愚蠢地设定公司的薪酬是个老教训，那么这场金融危机正在给股东带来一个新的教训。首先，不要相信广为认可的论断–给那些经理人大量本公司的股份就能保证使他们做出利益最大化的决定。在雷曼和贝尔斯登倒台中我们可以看到，那些管理层不仅仅是拿着别人钱的在鲁莽赌徒。迪克福德和杰米凯恩还是拿着自己的钱来鲁莽地下赌注，但最终他们都未能做出正确的抉择从而失掉了其绝大部分的财产。处于管理层外的股东要牢记，给那些管理者以股票只能对其管理有帮助，但是并不能代替公司管理。 Esop’s fables 员工持股的寓言
For employees, the tale of Lehman, especially after Enron, is a reminder of the danger of having too many savings tied up in the firm where you work.More of the truly talented will now demand their bonuses in cash, or perhaps ask for even more shares.That surely will have an effect on the way that firms recruit staff and on employee share-ownership schemes.Paying ordinary workers in shares is expensive-because equity is costly to iue and discounted by employees.And the idea that ordinary workers who own shares in their firm will stop senior managers taking bad decisions has taken another knock.
在安然倒台之后，对雇员来说雷曼事件应该特别引起注意，它提醒雇员不要将自己太多的储蓄和公司绑到一起。许多有才干的雇员从今之后将会要求他们的奖金以现金形式发放，也许或者要求更多的股份。这肯定会对公司招募新员工和员工持股计划产生影响。给普通员工股权会非常昂贵–因为股票发售代价很高，而在员工那里又打折不少。而普通员工持股会阻止高级经理做出错误决定的想法也遭重创。
The structure of bonus schemes is more important than their level-especially in finance.Foolish short-term risk-taking could be discouraged by matching the timing of bankers’ pay to the timing of the risks they are trading.Britain’s Financial Services Authority may ask banks to put up more capital if their pay structures are dangerously risky.That makes far more sense than capping pay.But in the end companies and shareholders are better at setting salaries than bureaucrats.
奖金方案的结构远比其数量更为重要–在金融界尤其如此。根据其对风险的交易时机制定支银行家付薪酬的时机，不失为防止愚蠢的短期冒险行为的良策。英国金融服务当局可能会要求银行持有更多的资金以防薪酬结构改变而带来的风险。这比限制薪酬要有意义的多。但是最终公司和股东会比官僚设定的薪酬要好得多 （十八）
And then there were none 投行之死
Sep 24th 2008 | NEW YORK From Economist.com What the death of the investment bank means for Wall Street 投资银行模式消失对华尔街来说意味着什么
THE radical overhaul of Britain’s financial sector in 1986 was dubbed the Big Bang.The brutal, unplanned reshaping of Wall Street might be better described as the Big Implosion.As if too ashamed to go on after the humbling of the country’s mortgage agencies and its largest insurer, the “bulge-bracket” brokerage model has collapsed in on itself.Even more humiliating for the erstwhile masters of the universe, the new force in finance is now the government.
1986年英国金融系统的大整顿被称为”金融大爆炸”。而这次对华尔街进行的残酷而又无计划的重塑应该被称为”金融大风暴”。在继美国最大的两家抵押贷款机构和最大的保险商蒙羞受乳之后，华尔街的”顶级投行”的经纪模式也似因连遭重创而无法运行下去，只得轰然垮台。对昔日的世界巨头来说更丢脸的是, 如今金融市场的主导力量变成了美国政府。
The last remaining investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, were forced to seek sanctuary by converting into bank holding companies after the trampling of Lehman Brothers turned into a full-scale run on the industry.Though neither was particularly sickly, markets could no longer stomach their potentially lethal combination of illiquid aets and skittish wholesale liabilities.
硕果仅存的两家投行–高盛和摩根斯坦利在雷曼垮台后，寻求政府保护：允许其成为银行控股公司从而能在市场上继续保持原有规模运作。尽管二者都不是完全陷入困境，但是市场对于其潜在的致命缺陷–非流动资产和不可靠的大规模债务的模式已经不再信任。
Both will now start gathering large amounts of deposits, a more stable form of funding.Signing up strong partners should also help.Mitsubishi UFJ, a giant Japanese bank, will buy up to 20% of Morgan.Late on Tuesday September 23rd Goldman went one better, coaxing $5 billion from Warren Buffett, an investing legend.This endorsement helped Goldman to raise a further $5 billion in a share offering the next day.
高盛和摩根斯坦利现在会去用吸收大量存款这种稳定的模式来筹资。当然，他们如能和强有力的伙伴合作，那么会对他们筹资有很大帮助。日本银行巨头三菱日联银行会购入摩根斯坦利20％的股份。高盛做的更好，在周二（9月23日）晚些时候，它从传奇投资人物巴菲特那里搞到50亿美元。巴菲特的这个支持有助于高盛第二天从股票发行中再筹得50亿美元。
Mr Buffett, no idle flatterer, describes Goldman as “exceptional”.But some doubt that it can adapt and thrive.As a bank it faces more intrusive supervision from the Federal Reserve, tougher capital requirements and restrictions on investing.Universal banks, such as Citigroup and Bank of America, long dismied as stodgy, argue that their vast balance sheets and wide range of businees, from cards to capital markets, give them an edge in trying times.The head of one bank suggests that the golden times enjoyed by investment banks in 2003-06 were an “aberration”, fuelled by a global liquidity glut big enough to hide a multitude of risk-taking sins.
巴菲特先生显然不是无所事事的马屁精，他将高盛描述为”异常出色”。但是有些人怀疑高盛是否能够改革并再次兴盛。作为一个银行它将面临美联储更多的监管，更严格的资本储备率和投资限制。长期以来由于其古板顽固而失宠的综合银行，例如花旗和美国银行，认为他们资产负债表上充足的资本和从银行卡到资本市场广泛的业务，在困难时期给他们带来许多优势。一家银行的老板认为，投资银行在2003到06年间所享受的黄金时光是”不正常的”–由过剩的流动性驱使而来，流动性大到足以掩盖诸多的风险过错。
Private-equity firms and hedge funds spy opportunity.The buyout barons got good news this week, when the Fed relaxed its rules on their ownership of banks.These investors are also going after the investment banks’ “talent”.Hedge funds will be particularly keen to get their hands on cutting-edge risk-takers who fret that new regulation will clip their wings.
私募股权公司和对冲基金正在伺机以动。它们本周得到个好消息，美联储放松了这些收购巨头对银行控股的限制。这些投资者正在追逐投行的”人才”。对冲基金将会对那些担心自己被新规定束缚手脚的精英冒险家们（译者注：投行的人才）表现的格外热情。
Power may shift in two other directions: abroad and, to a leer extent, to boutique investment banks.Mitsubishi is not the only foreign bank making a move.After a brief wrangle in the bankruptcy courts, Britain’s Barclays has taken over Lehman’s American operations.
权力正在两极分化：一是朝向海外，国际化方向聚集，另一个则是朝向小型专业投行聚集。三菱并不是唯一一个行动的外资银行。在破产法庭上简单争执之后，英国的巴克莱银行收购了雷曼美国的运营部门。
But all is not lost for the former investment banks.For one thing, they may not have to cut leverage by as much as feared.Though their overall leverage ratios are high, their risk-adjusted capital ratios under the Basel 2 rules are stronger than those of most commercial banks.
但是对于原来投行来说并不是所有都失去了。至少，他们不用减掉杠杆像原来担心的那么多。尽管它们的全面杠杆比率很高，但在巴塞尔2协议下，他们的风险调节资本比率比绝大多数商业银行都要好。
Moreover, there are some advantages to becoming a bank now.Dozens of regional lenders are expected to fail in the coming months.Goldman and Morgan should thus be able to ama deposits on the cheap, and without the headaches that would accompany a merger with a big commercial bank.As two of the sharpest distreed-debt investors, they will also be looking to pick up aets from the government’s giant loan-buying entity when it gets going.
此外，现在变为银行还有一些优势。许多地区性商业银行在近期会倒闭。因此，高盛和摩根斯坦利就可以吸收大量便宜的存款，而不必头痛要与一家大型商业银行合并的事情了。作为两家债券严重受损的投资者，它们也同样希望在政府巨大的贷款购买实体成立后，能够回笼些资产。
Given the acute stre in money markets, however, the accent for the time being is more on survival than grabbing opportunities.Banks continue to treat each other with suspicion in interbank loan markets.
由于货币市场有着巨大的压力，现在市场的声音不是能否抓住机会而是能否保住性命了。从银行间拆借市场可以看出银行之间依然存在着巨大的疑虑。
Financial firms fear further fallout from the recent, potentially catastrophic run on money-market funds that prompted the government to step in with guarantees.“Prime” money funds, which are important buyers of corporate debt, remain under preure and are pulling away from anything deemed risky.This is a big problem for banks, since money funds hold up to $1.3 trillion of their short-term debt.As the funds retreat, the banks will be forced to turn to longer-term (and more expensive) funding markets.
金融公司担心最近在货币市场基金上潜在的灾难会有更严重的辐射影响。这促使美国政府介入市场提供担保。重要的公司债券购买者，”首要”货币基金仍处于压力之下，而且不再涉及任何有风险的债券。这对银行来说是个大问题，因为货币基金只有它们1.3万亿美元的短期债券。随着这些基金的撤退，银行将被迫使用期限更长（且成本更高）的筹资手段。
Once markets stabilise, Wall Street will start to wonder if it is better or worse off without its standalone investment banks.They may leave behind a vacuum.As broker-dealers, regulated more lightly by the Securities and Exchange Commiion, they were free to put large dollops of capital to work, providing liquidity, making markets and auming risk.As banks, they may find the Fed takes a more restrictive view.
一旦市场企稳，华尔街就会考虑缺乏独立投行模式对其有利还是有害。独立投行之死留下了一片真空地带。作为经纪交易商，略受证券交易委员会监管，它们可以自由地运作巨额资本，提供流动性，形成市场并评估风险。作为银行，它们则会发现美联储有着更加限制性的看法。 （十九） 安全的代价
Sep 26th 2008 From Economist.com
How much have previous bail-outs cost? 以前的救市计划花费多少？
CONGRESS is under preure to approve the Treasury’s proposed $700 billion rescue package.Lawmakers, however, are conscious of the cost to the taxpayer: together with loans to AIG and Bear Stearns, public backing so far approaches 6% of GDP.This is well above the 3.7% of GDP of the savings-and-loan bail-out in the late 1980s and early 1990s.But some 6% of GDP is still much le than the average cost of resolving banking crises around the world in the past three decades, which a study by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, of the IMF, puts at 16%.目前国会正面临压力，要求它通过财政部提出的7000亿美元的救市计划。不过，立法者们意识到了纳税人需要承担的代价：算上提供给AIG和贝尔斯登的贷 款，目前此次金融危机中的公共支出已经接近GDP的6%。而1980年代末和1990年代初发生储蓄信贷机构危机时，这一数字不过为3.7%。但是，根据 国际货币基金组织Luc Laeven 和 Fabian Valencia的一项研究，过去三十年来世界为解决银行危机的公共支出占GDP的份额平均为16%。6%仍远低于这一平均值。 （二十） A quick fix
Nov 1st 2008 From The Economist print edition The IMF\'s new scheme to help emerging economies weather financial trumoil
Reuters
“EXCEPTIONAL times call for an exceptional response” said Dominique Strau-Kahn, the IMF\'s bo, of a new short-term lending facility for emerging economies facing temporary liquidity problems in capital markets.Under the “short-term liquidity facility” (SLF), approved on Wednesday October 29th, qualifying countries will be eligible for a loan at short notice of up to 500% of their IMF quota, the maximum amount a country is obliged to provide to the IMF.The three-month loans will come with a minimum of conditions relating to economic policy; they are also intended to be made available with a rapidity not usually aociated with the organisation.
All this is music to the ears of those, including many within the IMF, who have been arguing that the Fund needs to match its lending to changing global circumstances.The new facility goes some way towards adreing an obvious shortcoming in the IMF’s arsenal of lending instruments.Until now, the Fund had nothing it could deploy aimed at countries facing a temporary shortage of liquidity in spite of sound macroeconomic fundamentals.Yet this situation had become much more likely, even without a paralysing credit crisis, because of increasing global financial interdependence.
A country lacking short-term liquidity would be loth to approach the IMF for a loan under the “stand-by arrangement” (SBA), the mainstay of the IMF’s crisis lending.The SBA carries a stigma, because requesting such a loan is aumed to reflect badly on the recipient’s economic management.But the new loan facility will only be available those countries that the IMF deem to be in sound macroeconomic health.If anything, qualification should serve to reaure outsiders that the country’s policies are eentially sound, and that the difficulties it faces are temporary and a result of factors beyond its control.By this method, the IMF has also precluded the need for the type of onerous conditions which usually accompany loans under the SBA.
The second feature of the SBA that makes it le well suited to dealing with temporary liquidity crises is that funding is usually released in phased tranches.In a liquidity crisis brought on by a collapse in confidence a large loan, quickly administered, is the best method for restoring confidence in a short period of time—exactly how the new loans should work.
Most will cheer the IMF for introducing flexible loanmaking without onerous conditionality but concerns remain.Some economists fear that the funds available for the IMF to dole out, which in September stood at $255 billion, may not be enough if several emerging markets come under stre at the same time.Deutsche Bank estimates that a single large emerging market may face a financing gap of up to $90 billion, depending on roll-over rates for credit lines, liquidation of foreign positions in bond and equity markets, and domestic capital flight.
Under these circumstances, the IMF’s pockets, which seemed enviously deep just a short while ago, might not be deep enough.Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist, reckons that it may need upto $1 trillion.The IMF acknowledges the problem and says it is prepared to “work with others to generate additional resources to make sure that countries have the money they need to restore confidence and maintain stability”.
Just as important, it remains to be seen how difficult it will be to qualify for a loan under the SLF.It is unclear how strictly the IMF will set the criteria for certifying that a country’s economic management is sound.As a result there may be a number of vulnerable countries that do not qualify for the scheme.As with any programme of this kind, the devil is in the details.The question, then is whether the IMF’s new facility is as good in practice as it seems to be in theory.
“非常时刻需要非常的应对措施”——国际货币基金组织(IMF)的老板Dominique Strau-Kahn说道，该应对是指为暂时面对资本市场流动性问题的新兴经济体提供一个新的短期贷款工具。10月29日的周三批准的“短期流动性贷款工具”（SLF）使得有资格的国家可以在短期内能够筹到高达他们IMF配额5倍的贷款，这也是一个国家被要求提供给IMF的最大数额。该项为期三个月的贷款将仅有最少的与经济政策有关的附带条款；它们的拨付也将快于该组织以往的惯例。
这些措施与对于包括IMF组织内部在内的很多希望该基金根据全球变化来配比其贷款的人想法不谋而合。新的工具某种程度上克服了IMF借款工具武器库的一个明显弱点。该基金直到现在才可以将目标集中在那些有着良好的宏观经济基本面但面对短暂的流动性缺乏的国家。但是由于全球金融不断加强的相互依赖使得就算没有瘫痪性的信用危机，这种情况发生的可能性也更大了。
一个缺乏短期流动性的国家可能不愿意找到IMF要求根据“备用信贷协议”（SBA）——IMF危机贷款的中流砥柱——贷款给它。备用信贷协议（SBA）带有个一个耻辱的烙印，因为要求这样一种贷款会被认为反映了贷款接受国经济管理的不善。但新的贷款工具只会拨付给那些IMF认为处在良好经济健康状况中的国家。如果说还有什么区别的话，就是能够贷到这样的款能够起到安抚外界的人的作用，表明该国家的政策本质上是良好的，而且该国家面对的困难是暂时的、是超出其控制的因素造成的。IMF也通过该方法排除了通常在SBA协议下附带很多条款的必要。
SBA协议的另外一个使得其不那么适合处理暂时流动性危机的特点是资金是分阶段拨付的。在信心崩溃导致的流动性危机中，快速审批通过的大额贷款才是短期内重振信心的最佳方法——新的贷款正是如此。
大部分人对IMF引入如此具有灵活性的贷款而不附带很多条件表示高兴，但对此的疑虑仍然存在。一些经济学家担心如果一些新兴市场在同一时间里也面临压力时，IMF少量发放资金（九月份数额为2,550亿美金）只是杯水车薪而已。德意志银行估计某一个大的新兴市场可能面对的是高达900亿美金的融资鸿沟，这取决于贷款最高限额的滚动利率，债券和资本市场中外国头寸的流动性和国内资本的流动。
在这些种情况下，IMF的腰包虽然之前看来还深得令人羡慕，但可能也不够深了。IMF的前首席经济学家Simon Johnson认为IMF可能需要高达10,000亿美金才行。IMF表示知晓了这个问题并且说它已经准备”与其他组织一道来生成更多的资源保证国家有他们需要的资金来重振信心保持稳定”。
如其重要性一样，有资格获得短期流动性贷款工具（SLF）的困难程度也有目共睹。IMF如何设定标准证明一个国家的经济管理是良好的仍然不清楚。所以可能存在许多得不到贷款但已岌岌可危的国家。正如任何其他此类项目一样，魔鬼存在于细节之中。那么问题就是IMF的新工具在实际应用中是否如其理论看上去的那样好。
