经济增速放缓对中国银行业的影响显现 Lagging Indicators: China\'s Banks and the Slowdown
摘要: Chinese banks\' net income surged to record highs last year, defying the slowing growth on the world\'s second-largest economy.Is it indicating that banks are resilient to the economic downturn?Not nec ...
Chinese banks\' net income surged to record highs last year, defying the slowing growth on the world\'s second-largest economy.Is it indicating that banks are resilient to the economic downturn?
Not necearily.
The banks have a tendency to be lagging indicators.Only after a certain amount of time has paed will China\'s macro situation show up on the bottom line.
Take, for example, bad loans.They\'re finally growing, incrementally, after years of declining.Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation\'s largest bank by aets, saw its
nonperforming loans rise by 3.82 billion yuan (about $606 million) in the fourth quarter; China Construction Bank Corp., the No.2 bank on the mainland, reported a 6.27 billion yuan rise in such loans.Bank of China Ltd.\'s bad loans in the fourth quarter rose 1.39 billion yuan.(In China, nonperforming loans are those that have at least a 30% chance of turning sour.)
Smaller banks also saw some increases in bad loans.China Minsheng Banking Corp., the
country\'s largest non-state-owned bank, posted a rise of 200 million yuan in nonperforming loans in 2011.Such loans at Industrial Bank Co.grew by 99 million yuan last year.
More tellingly, data from the Chinese banking regulator showed that the nonperforming loan ratio in the nation\'s banking sector edged up 0.1 percentage point in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, the first rise in the past six years.
The regulator didn\'t give a reason, but the earnings reports from Chinese banks this week offered some cues: The property market might be the culprit.
China Construction Bank said among the total, its nonperforming loans related to the real estate sector surged 20% over the same period.Minsheng Bank said the nonperforming ratio of its real estate financing businees was 1.72%, well above its overall bad loan ratio of 0.63%.
Home prices have been under preure for about two years, but it\'s only now do we see a sign of it in banks\' statements.The question is whether investors see a few more problem numbers down the road.
In three years starting 2009, banks in China iued a total of 25 trillion yuan of
renminbi-denominated loans, with roughly 40% of the lending going to government-initiated infrastructure projects and the property sector.
\'The second quarter of this year will be one of the peak seasons for the repayment of property loans and local government borrowings.With a slowing economy, we can expect that higher nonperforming loans are on the cards,\' GF Securities analyst Mu Hua said in a recent note.
According to Noah Wealth Management, a Chinese financial service company, a total of 117.25 billion yuan of property trust products will be due this year, well above the 47.05 billion yuan last year, putting huge preure on property developers\' cash flows.
Besides property, analysts say local government borrowings will present a bigger challenge to banks.Banking executives have estimated that a third of China\'s 10.7 trillion yuan government debt will be due this year and the next.
Standard & Poor\'s analyst Liao Qiang said he believes Beijing will likely give some regulatory forbearance to local government debt to prevent a surge in banks\' bad loans.\'Neverthele, property developers and manufacturers in industries with a supply glut will continue to face policy-induced refinancing uncertainties from time to time,\' he said.
Monday in Hong Kong, China Construction Bank Chairman Wang Hongzhang said he\'s optimistic about the bank\'s aet quality, given China\'s economic growth is likely to remain solid.
\'Nonperforming loan levels are controllable.Even though they are higher than before, the amount is small and [the rise] is likely to be temporary,\' he said.
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中资银行净利润去年创下新高，似乎并没有受到中国这一世界第二大经济体经济增速放缓的影响。这是否意味着，银行业可以免受经济下行的影响呢？
未必。
银行业的反应往往有一定的滞后性。只有在一段时期后，中国宏观经济形势的影响才会在银行的营收中有所体现。
以不良贷款为例。在下降趋势持续了几年之后，不良贷款的比例终于开始上升，虽然涨幅不大。按资产总量计算，中国最大的银行中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)的不良贷款去年第四季度增加了人民币38.2亿元（约合6.06亿美元），中国第二大银行中国建设银行(China Construction Bank Corp.)的不良贷款增加了人民币62.7亿元。中国银行(Bank of China Ltd.)的不良贷款在第四季度增加了13.9亿元。（在中国，不良贷款指的是变成坏账的几率在30%以上的贷款。）
规模较小银行的不良贷款水平也在增长。中国最大的非国有银行中国民生银行(China
Minsheng Banking Corp.)2011年不良贷款增加了人民币2亿元。兴业银行(Industrial Bank Co.)的不良贷款去年增加了人民币9,900万元。
更能说明这一问题的是，中国银监会的数据显示，中国银行业的不良贷款比例在第四季度较第三季度上升了0.1个百分点，这是该比例过去六年来首次上升。
银监会没有给出原因，但是中资银行本周发布的年报提供了一些线索：房地产市场可能是罪魁祸首。
中国建设银行表示，在该银行的所有不良贷款中，与房地产业有关的不良贷款同比上涨了20%。民生银行说，其房地产融资业务的不良贷款比例为1.72%，大大超过了其0.63%的总体不良贷款比例。
两年来住房价格一直在承受压力，但直到现在我们才在银行的年报中看到了相关迹象。问题是，投资者是否看到了更多问题数据出现的可能性。
从2009年到2011年这三年里，中资银行共发放了25万亿元以人民币计价的贷款，其中约有40%的贷款流向了政府主导的基建项目和楼市。
今年的第二季度将是房地产贷款和地方政府借贷的还款高峰期。广发证券(GF Securities Co.)分析师沐华在最近的一份报告中说，由于经济减速，我们预计可能出现更多的不良贷款。
中国的金融服务公司诺亚财富投资管理有限公司(Noah Private Wealth Management, 简称：诺亚财富)说，共有1,172.5亿元的房地产信托产品将会在今年到期，高于去年的470.5亿元，这给房地产开发商的现金流造成了巨大压力。
分析人士说，除了房地产，地方政府借的贷款将为银行带来更大的挑战。据一些银行高管估计，中国10.7万亿元的政府贷款中，有三分之一将在今明两年到期。
标准普尔(Standard & Poor)的分析师廖强说，中国中央政府可能会给予地方政府债务一定的宽限，以防不良贷款激增。他说，尽管如此，房地产开发商以及供应过剩行业的制造企业仍会不时地面临由政策引发的再融资不确定性。
中国建设银行董事长王洪章周一在香港说，考虑到中国经济很可能继续保持稳定增长，他对该银行的资产质量持乐观态度。他说，不良贷款的水平是可控的。即使是比以往有所增加，总量还是很小，而且增长很可能也是暂时的。
