河北工程大学土木工程学院
毕业设计外文资料翻译
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业 学
生 指导教师
河北工程大学土木工程学院
2014年6月4号
未来个人运输在世界大城市中的发展
Schafer, Jacoby, Heywood and Waitz（2009）研究认为一个人平均每天花大约70分钟的时间使用交通工具。这个时间预算在过去各个国家中是相对稳定的。所以，富有的人开始倾向于跑的更快，跑的更远。
而在不久的将来，全世界将会全面提高机动车的机动性。例如：Schafer and Victor (2000)推测，预计到2050年世界公民行驶的整体平均路程将比欧洲在1990年跑的整体平均路程多。从2000年到2050年，美国的平均机动性将提高2.6倍，达到每年58000千米。Schafer and Victor (2000)还预估，到2050年印度的平均机动性将增加到每年6000千米，达到了欧洲1970年早期的水平。总的来说，人们在2000年能行驶230亿公里，到了2050年，有望增加到1050亿公里。
与此同时，城市人口正持续增大。根据World Bank（2002）研究，拥有1000多万居民的大城市的数量有望在下一代翻倍。随着城市的扩大和富裕，车辆所有制以及其使用会快速增加，相反，这将影响车辆的行速，加大道路拥挤和空气污染。
上述趋势使得人们对大城市可持续发展交通展开了广泛地讨论。从广义上讲，城市交通的可持续运动涉及到可操作性以及通过公平高效手段产生的财富问题，同时还要维护身体健康，将自然资源消耗和放射性污染减到最低。通常，广泛使用公共交通和快速轨道交通是可行的。例如：像东京，香港这样的大城市，它们在私人车流行前就投资建设公共交通，以提供广泛的，优质的公共交通系统。在这些城市，直到快速轨道交通的建立，公交远行还一直处于高水平阶段。
然而，个人交通工具已成为现代城市生活的一部分。不管是作为独有的、分享的还是用于飞行的交通工具，它们都给个人和社会带来了很大的便利。因此，Kennedy et al.(2005)指出，对于城市的可持续发展来说，为新一代可持续个人交通工具做规划是至关重要的。同时技术创新和工业生态学观念的应用，让可持续个人交通工具成为了可能。
另外，许多应用智能型运输系统将充分影响未来城市交通运输。这些应用程序包括需求管理（需求感应公共交通、汽车共乘共享、通路管制以及道路使用要求）、旅行计划系统/实时旅游者信息、公共交通信号优先系统。
为了研究大城市中个人交通运输目前及将来的状况，本文选取了世界15大都市，根据地理位置划分可如下所示：
北美洲：芝加哥、纽约 欧洲：伦敦、莫斯科、巴黎 中美洲、南美洲：布宜诺斯艾利斯（阿根廷首都）、墨西哥城、里约热内卢、圣保罗 印度：班加罗尔、加尔各答、新德里、孟买 中国：香港、上海
对于各个大城市来说，一系列影响未来交通的关键指标是已检定的。主要包括人口和财富、私人电动客运车辆、公共交通模式操作、运具选择、旅行速度模式、交通事故。以人口和财富为列，因为人口的大小以及人群的富有程度起到至关重要的作用，因此对选定大城市的人口预期增长和大城市所在国的人均财富预期增长作出相应比较。
结果显示，从2005年到2025年预计出现人口增长最高比例（超过预期30%）的地区有班加罗尔、加尔各答、新德里、孟买和上海，其次为适度增加12%-18%的芝加哥、香港、墨西哥城、、里约热内卢和圣保罗，增长最慢的（低于12%）主要有布宜诺斯艾利斯、伦敦、莫斯科、纽约和巴黎。总体上说，人口增长最快的现象将出现在印度和中国。而从2010年到2014年，预计收入增长最快的是中国，接着是印度、俄罗斯、墨西哥、香港、巴西、英国、阿根廷、法国和美国。
然后，对选定大城市的计划策略进行分析，这些大城市主要有：纽约、伦敦、圣保罗、孟买和上海。同时，目前的结论不需完整描述一个策略。例如：在国家、地区和地方上，城市交通规划会涉及很多政府的结构，并且每个层次都有它自己的策略。所以，策略分析的主要目的是突出已定大城市在未来10到20年内的主要目标、实施重点以及措施计划。其关注点是计划出行方式即该策略如何预想私人车辆、公共车辆以及非机动车辆在未来的作用。
以纽约为列，区域交通规划的目标是从2030年开始，满足城市和地区的交通需求，并提高行驶速度。这个计划策略包括改善交通网络，通过更好的道路管理和拥挤定价来减少交通堵塞。具体措施如下：1）提高关键拥堵路线的承载力2）提供新通勤火车进入曼哈顿3）增加到稠密地区的交通4）改善、增加公共汽车服务5）改善当地通勤火车的服务。
另外，纽约近期推出了自己的战略计划。主要目标包括：例如城市交通事故减少50%；实施快速公交线路措施，以提高全市汽车的行速；到2015年使自行车通行翻一倍；启动全市停车政策来管理空间，以此减少巡航和拥堵；采用完整街道设计模版为重建项目；提供更好的街道面等。
最后，对选定城市的未来运输方式进行了讨论。主要包括个人车辆人均所有权、在城市内部个人车辆行驶的人均距离、用于通勤的个人车辆行驶的人均距离、用于休闲旅游的个人车辆行驶的人均距离、道路死亡人均数量、新的机动网络。 基于上述研究，我们预测到2025年各大城市都或多或少会有些改变，主要改变有个人交通工具的所有权、由个人交通工具内在核心决定的人均距离、道路死亡人均数量等。这预测主要包括以下几方面：
1） 个人车辆所有权大幅增加的现象将出现在印度的四大城市和上海 2） 在任何大城市中，使用内核个人交通工具的数量将不会增加 3） 预计用于通勤的个人交通工具的使用也将不会增加
4） 用于休闲旅行的个人交通工具数量将增加（并且交通事故增长最快的）， 这种现象主要出现在上海，其次是印度的四大城市，里约热内卢和圣保罗
总的来说，在未来的15年内，可以预见到在选定大城市的各个地方不会出现大幅度降低对个人交通工具依赖的现象。相反，我们预计在印度、中国、巴西的大城市中，个人交通工具的作用将会不断上升。
上述趋势的出现是由于我们视不同的交通运输方式为独立唯一的选择。然而，越来越多的实施和新机动网络正处于使用中，即综合网络——提供多链接，高技术，门到门的交通运输方式选择。虽然，这些网络有望减少人们对个人交通运输的依赖度，但这种特性的大小和影响仍有待确定。
The Future of Personal Transportation in Megacities of The World On average, a person spends about 70 minutes per day traveling (Schafer, Jacoby, Heywood, and Waitz, 2009).This time budget is relatively constant over time and acro countries.Consequently, wealthy people tend to travel faster and over longer distances.In the future there will be an overall increase in mobility throughout the world.For example, Schafer and Victor (2000) projected that by 2050 the average citizen of the world will travel (by all modes) as much overall distance as the average Western European did in 1990.From 2000 to 2050, the mobility of the average American will increase by a factor of 2.6, to 58,000 km/year.Schafer and Victor (2000) forecast that the average Indian will increase his/her travel to 6,000 km/year by 2050, comparable to the level of West Europeans in the early 1970s.In total, in 2000, people traveled 23 billion km, and by 2050 that figure is expected to grow to 105 billion km (Schafer and Victor, 2000).At the same time, urban population continues to expand, and the number of megacities—cities with over 10 million inhabitants—is expected to double within a generation (World Bank, 2002).As cities grow and become richer, vehicle ownership and use tend to increase rapidly.This, in turn, has an influence on travel speed, congestion, and air pollution.The above trends have resulted in wide discuion about sustainable transportation in metropolitan areas.In broad terms, movement to sustainable urban transportation involves acceibility and the generation of wealth by cost-effective and equitable means, while safeguarding health and minimizing the consumption of natural resources and the emiion of pollutants (Kennedy, Miller, Shalaby, Maclean, and Coleman, 2005).Frequently, this has been feasible with wide use of public transportation in general, and rapid rail transportation in particular.For example, there are cities such as Tokyo and Hong Kong that invested in public transport to provide extensive, high-quality, public transport systems before private vehicle ownership was high (Barter, Kenworthy, and Laube, 2003).In these cities, bus travel was at a high level until rapid ma transit was built and became affordable.However, personal vehicles are an integral part of modern city life, providing a number of benefits to individuals and society no matter how they are used—as single occupancy vehicles or as shared or shuttle vehicles.Consequently, as pointed out by Kennedy et al.(2005), planning for a new generation of sustainable personal vehicles is critical for the sustainable development of cities.Through technical innovation and the application of concepts of industrial ecology, there are several poible candidates for the sustainable personal vehicles of the future (Kennedy et al., 2005).In addition, it is likely that many applications of intelligent transportation systems will substantially affect future urban transportation.These applications include, for example, demand management (demand-responsive public transportation, car pooling and sharing, acce control, road-use charging), trip planning systems/real-time traveler information, and signal priorities for public transport.To study current and future personal transportation in megacities, 15 metropolitan areas worldwide were selected.The selected metropolitan areas were claified by region as follows: North America: Chicago, New York Europe: London, Moscow, Paris Central and South America: Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo India: Bangalore, Calcutta, Delhi, Mumbai China: Hong Kong, Shanghai For each metropolitan area, a set of key indicators affecting future transportation was examined.It includes population and health, Private motorized paenger vehicles, Public transportation modes operated, Modal split, Travel speed by mode, Road fatalities.As population and wealth, Size of the population and wealth of the population play vital roles.Consequently, Figure 1 and Table 1 present the expected growth in population of the examined megacities, and Table 2 presents the expected growth in wealth per capita for the countries in which the megacities are located.The results indicate that the highest proportional increases from 2005 to 2025 (more than0%) is predicted for Bangalore, Calcutta, Delhi, Mumbai, and Shanghai, followed by modest increases (12-18%) for Chicago, Hong Kong, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo.The lowest increases (le than 12%) are predicted for Buenos Aires, London, Moscow, New York, and Paris.Overall, the highest increase of population will take place in the examined Indian and Chinese metropolitan areas.Table 2 indicates that the highest increase of incomes from 2010 to 2014 is expected for China, followed by India, Ruia, Mexico, Hong Kong, Brazil, United Kingdom, Argentina, France, and the United States.Then the chapter studies the Selected urban transportation plans and strategies.The cities involve New York, London, Sao Paulo, Mumbai, Shanghai.Meanwhile, The presented summaries do not necearily convey a complete description of the strategies.For example, the urban transportation plans of large metropolitan areas typically involve many government structures at national, regional, and local levels (see e.g., Urban Age, 2009), and each level can have its own strategy.Consequently, the presented summaries are designed to highlight the main objectives, focuses, and measures planned by the selected metropolitan areas for the next 10 to 20 years.The emphasis is on the planned modal split (i.e., how the strategies envision the future role of private vehicles, public transportation, and nonmotorized transportation.As New York, the goal of the regional transportation plan (PLANYC, 2007) is to meet the city’s and region’s transportation needs through 2030 and beyond, and to improve travel speed.The plan includes strategies to improve the transit network and reduce growing gridlock on the roads through better road management and congestion pricing.The specific initiatives include the following: (1) to increase the capacity on key congested routes, (2) to provide new commuter rail acce to Manhattan, (3) to expand transit acce to underserved areas, (4) to improve and expand bus service, and (5) to improve local commuter rail service.In addition, New York City has recently introduced its own strategic plan (NYCDOT, 2008).Its major goals include, for example cutting city traffic fatalities by 50% from the 2007 levels, implementing bus rapid transit lines and measures to increase bus speeds city-wide, doubling bicycle commuting by 2015, initiating city-wide parking policies to manage curb space to reduce cruising and congestion, adopting complete-street design templates for reconstruction projects, launching a Main Street Initiative to develop people-friendly boulevards in key corridors acro the city, and delivering better street surfaces.At last, we discu the future transportation in the examined metropolitan areas.It includes Personal vehicle ownership per capita, Distance driven by personal vehicles per capita within cities’ inner core, Distance driven by personal vehicles per capita for commuting, Distance driven by personal vehicles per capita for leisure trips, Number of road fatalities per capita, New mobility networks.Based on the analysis, projections through 2025 were made for each megacity for changes in ownership of personal vehicles; distance traveled per capita by personal vehicle within inner core, for commuting, and for leisure; and for number of road fatalities per capita.The forecasts include the following: • The largest increases in personal vehicle ownership will occur in the four Indian megacities and Shanghai.• There will be no increase in the use of personal vehicles for inner-core transportation in any of the megacities.• No increases are expected in the use of personal vehicles for commuting.
• The largest increases in the use of personal vehicles for leisure traveling (and the largest increases in road fatalities) will take place in Shanghai, followed by the four megacities in India, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo.Overall, no substantial decrease in the reliance on personal vehicles is foreseen in the next 15 years anywhere in the examined megacities.To the contrary, an increased role of personal vehicles is forecasted for the megacities in India, China, and Brazil.The above trends are based on treating the different transportation modes as independent and exclusive options.However, there is growing implementation and use of new mobility networks—integrated networks that provide a variety of connected and IT-enhanced transportation options door-to-door.Although such networks are expected to reduce the reliance on personal vehicles, the magnitude and nature of this effect remain to be ascertained.
