Social housing in China
No way home
Giving the urban poor a place to call home
Oct 15th 2011 | BEIJING | from the print edition
IF THERE is one thing that annoys the man on the Beijing omnibus, it is the cost of housing in China’s cities.By unofficial estimates, the average price of a flat in the capital has risen between five and ten-fold in the past decade.So Li Keqiang, who is likely to become China’s next prime minister, is trying to show his mettle by sorting out the problem.Under his direction, local governments have embarked on a campaign to build unprecedented quantities of social housing for the urban poor.Officials have been claiming a spectacular succe, but persuading citizens to share their joy is proving another matter.
Preure from Mr Li looks, on the surface, to be paying off.Official statistics suggest that in recent weeks, local governments (not normally known for their enthusiasm for spending money on the poor) have been racing to meet their quotas for the year.On October 10th the central
government declared that a target of starting work on 10m social-housing units this year was 98% complete.In September alone, work began on
1.2m units—more than twice the number of private homes America began building last year.
The central government is not just trying to woo the poor.It also sees the project as a way of pepping up the economy at a time of global gloom.This year’s target represents a 70% increase in the construction of social housing compared with 2010 (see chart).In March the government announced a goal of completing 36m units by 2015.If three people on average live in one flat, this would be the equivalent of building new housing for the combined populations of Britain and Poland.
Some state-controlled newspapers have, however, been airing scepticism.The surge in construction has been compared by a few commentators to Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward of the late 1950s, when local governments vied with one other in their increasingly implausible claims of soaring output.“This kind of farce is showing signs of making a comeback”, said a columnist in Panyu Daily, a newspaper in the southern province of Guangdong.In September alone, others noted, Guangdong’s reported fulfilment of its quota for the year increased from 66% (the country’s lowest rate) to 96%, thanks to work started on another 291,000
units.An article published by Sina.com, a news portal, said many analysts were wondering whether Guangdong had maaged its figures.
Next year’s target is for work to begin on another 10m units (roughly the number of commercial housing units sold nationwide last year).But Zheng Siqi of Beijing’s Tsinghua University worries whether the building boom is sustainable.The central government, she reckons, is only paying about 10-20% of the construction costs, which officials say will total around 1.3 trillion yuan ($204 billion) for 10m units.It needs to provide more, Ms Zheng says.
Last month the central government told local authorities that they would not be allowed to build new offices for themselves if they failed to meet their quotas.That might help: local governments are fond of erecting lavish headquarters.Political preure on them is likely to mount while Mr Li, a deputy prime minister, prepares to take over from his bo, Wen Jiabao.But sustaining this pace for long will not be easy.Local governments are well versed in frustrating central directives.
Critics also point out that the social-housing programme will mostly benefit urban residents, whose household-registration certificates, or hukou, identify them as city residents.Migrants from the countryside
usually find it difficult to get hold of such certificates, even if they have lived in a city for many years.Most local governments prefer not to hand them out, because to do so would commit them to providing the holder with the full range of welfare benefits.
The central government hopes the new housing will reduce public discontent over property prices, but even among urban hukou holders, many are cynical about the government’s efforts.Officials find it difficult to ae who is qualified for the housing, given that many households disguise their true incomes.Some of the better-quality housing ends up in the hands of people who are clearly not entitled to it.A visit to one social-housing complex in eastern Beijing, Zhuxin Homes, finds several luxury cars parked around its apartment blocks.An estate agent nearby offers one of its apartments for rent: a sign that the owners have more than one property and are illegally turning their social housing into a money-spinner.
Mr Li has streed the importance of ensuring that social housing is distributed fairly and has called for supervision of the proce “by the media and people”.But his own officials seem reluctant offer much convincing detail on local government compliance.As a report by Macquarie Capital Securities laments, “reliable facts are still hard to
find”.
中国保障性安居工程
家在何方
城市贫民：“我想有个家”。
如果非要让那些挤北京公交的兄弟姐妹们说出一个让他们（她们）喟叹的事情的话，那一定是中国城市的房价。根据非官方估计，在过去十年，中国首都北京的房价飙升了5-10倍。有鉴于此，中国行将上任的国家总理-李克强正积极谋求对策解决这个问题。在李总理的领导下，中国各地方政府投入专项资金，力图为城市寒士安得广厦千万间。官方报告宣称该措施积极得力，取得巨大成功，但普通城市市民却五味杂陈。
表面看来，由于李总理的要求，安居工程大快人心。官方统计数据表明：最近几周，各地方政府（通常因不待见贫民而饱受诟病）纷纷大干快干的上马安居工程，以力求完成中央规定的年度任务。10月10日，中央宣布的1千万安居工程目标中，目前业已完成今年的年度计划的98%。仅9月，就有120万套开工，这一数字是美国去年全年开工的私房建设数量的两倍。
中央政府的安居工程不仅仅是为了安抚贫民，它的另一个作用就是提振因全球经济不景气而下滑的中国经济。与2010年相比，今年安居工程的完工目标在去年的基础上增加了70%。今年3月，中央政府承诺2015年之前完工3600万套。假设每三个人住一套公寓的话，那么中国住进安居工程小区的人数就是英国和波兰两国人口总数之和。
一些报刊对此数量庞大的安居工程是否能如期完工表示怀疑。有评论家将这次的安居工程建设和毛泽东时期的大跃进相比。彼时，各地方政府相互较劲，努力吹嘘自己地盘上不断增高的产量，吹嘘的数字是否合理则置若罔闻。“这种闹剧是我们社会倒退的端倪，”中国南部广东番禺日报评论专栏如是评价道。得益于9月开工建设的29万1千套，广东从中国开工率最低的省份（66%）成为完成定额任务96%的大省。新浪网发表的一份文章说很多分析家认为广东公布的数字有水分。
明年政府工作的目标是开工建设1千万套保障性安居房，（这一数字大约相当于去年全球房屋销售量）。但清华大学学者郑思琪（音译）不无担忧这种大兴土木的工程能否持续进行。郑表示，中央政府只支付10-20%的安居工程建设费用，其他的1.3万亿人民币（约合2040亿美元）需要当地政府筹集。她认为中央政府应该加大安居工程投资力度。
上月，中央政府发文称，如果地方政府未能完成额定的安居工程任务，将不允许修建新的办公大楼。这也许能起点作用：地方政府乐衷于修建豪华办公楼。随
着明年李克强同志的上任，地方政府的政治压力会与日俱增。
有批评家指出，因为户口的原因，社会安居工程在很大程度上是对城市居民的利好，一纸户口将城里人和乡里人区别开来。移居到城里的农村人，就算在城市居住了很多年，也往往只能望户口兴叹。绝大部分的政府官员不愿意让农村人拥有城市户口，就是怕众多的农村人摊薄了城里人的福利。
中央政府寄望于安居工程能安抚公众对高企房价的不满，然而，就算是一些拥有城市户口的城里人，对这项工程也是颇有微言。由于部分安居房申请者刻意隐瞒自己的真实收入，政府部门对此又束手无策，无法认定谁才是真正的需求者。地段稍佳的房子会落入那些没有资格申请的申请者手里。位于北京东部的安居工程-竹心家园（音译）小区内，就发现有几辆豪车的身影。附近一房产中介提供的一该小区出租房露出了蛛丝马迹：房屋拥有者的合同上表明，房东不止有一套房产，并且违法的将安居工程的房子出租牟利。
李克强总理强调公平分配房源的重要性，也呼吁“媒体和人民”对政府房源分配的监督。但是具有讽刺意味的是，地方政府本身就不愿意提供一些让人信服的政府政绩给“媒体和人民”。诚如台北麦格里资本证券所扼腕叹息那般：“我们真的很难发现可以让人信服的事实。”
